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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Beachside Bill who wrote (60608)	8/24/2006 10:27:09 AM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

'Retail can fall, 20% unemployment, but housing prices and demand will be the last' Tell that to every bag holder of the thousands of vacant new homes in AZ and FL exhurb overbuilt hoods with no end users in sight.. Two plus year supply and growing..

To: Beachside Bill who wrote (60608)	8/24/2006 11:17:30 AM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Likely there'll be a pause and then a bounce up in price and then a deeper fall etc. over the next 5 years or so... pretty much what is being seen in Britain...

To: Beachside Bill who wrote (60608)	8/24/2006 1:04:03 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

>>but you had belittle me...<< Aw, c'mon Bill, I did put a <G> after the comment..... >>you shorting the homeboys again?<< Yes, but only about half loaded (regrettably). Things look even weaker than I thought possible at this stage, this will take years to unwind. The big boys are fickle, all that money flow can reverse out just as fast as it came in (and will). Mortgage rate at 3.5%? Possibly, in 2008.....it'll take a decent sized recession to get there. If we do get there (or even close), I'll be buying investment property with both hands. Agree with retail falling. It's all over the charts of the big boxes. Don't underestimate the effect of housing "slowdown" on employment....about 30% of job growth since 2003 has been real estate/RE financing/construction related. The builders can weather the storm (if they acted early enough and pulled back), but will their ex-employees?