Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: regli who wrote (55296)	8/24/2006 6:11:36 PM
From: valueminded	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Regli: Since the question came up about skewing the mean, why wouldn't you look at the sales numbers below the mean and above the mean. If you do, you get the following: <250k >250k 2005 2nd quarter 191,000 161,000 2006 2nd quarter 165,000 149,000 drop in sales -14% -7.5% Now I am not sure how this shows prices as clearly going down. Total sales dollars - yes - but prices (at least presently) I am not so sure of. Sales here (in Nashville) continue to grow although I believe they are slowing. The builders (on the other hand) continue to build like there is no tomorrow so I think a number will find themselves with cashflow issues.

To: regli who wrote (55296)	8/24/2006 6:50:50 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Earnings Revisions Defy Economic Reality bcaresearch.com 10:15:00, August 23, 2006 The recent uptick in global earnings revisions is unsustainable given the developing slowdown in world economic growth. Analysts revised up their earnings expectations in August, consistent with the rebound in risk appetite. But a reversal looks probable given the continuing weakness in our 23-country Leading Economic Indicator. Historically, the latter has provided a good lead on earnings revisions, and points to a stream of downgrades in the months ahead. Rising global short-term interest rates, high energy prices and modest upward pressure on unit labor costs reinforce that earnings momentum will deteriorate. Bottom line: while there will be regional divergences, the overall global equity index will likely churn in the near term as analysts cut earnings estimates, especially with many central banks still in tightening mode.