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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (5)8/25/2006 12:50:45 PM
From: Moominoid  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 27223
 
I think P/Es will only go to the 1980s level if interest rates get to that level. For that you need inflation way above the current level... don't think this is going to happen any time soon. Or a total crash like the Great Depression. Ditto. I believe the current period is going to be like the late 1930s and 1940s - stocks gradually moving up but without the P/E expansion of the 1982-2000 bull market. This is based on an assessment of where we are in the Kondratieff Cycle.



To: Kirk © who wrote (5)8/25/2006 4:11:35 PM
From: Joe Smith  Respond to of 27223
 
Somewhere I read that you have to adjust expectations for PE based on the fact that stocks such as energy stocks make up a much larger percentage of the SPX now and they traditionally have low PE's.


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