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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (2261)	8/29/2006 8:07:06 AM
From: 8bits	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50729

XOM more profitable than the dollar since Mid-May: finance.yahoo.com May 15th close 62.00 Today's close 70.10 (This doesn't include the dividend paid August 10th...) Dollar index: fxstreet.com Bonds..? Which ones.. XOM is more profitable than the 10 year. CVX is also higher (plus another dividend..) finance.yahoo.com May 15th 60.56 Today's close 66.16 Also beats the dollar and the ten year bond. Of course we are approaching shoulder the biannual event when Wall street sells off single oil stocks. Let's rexamine the stock prices (plus dividends) for CVX and XOM vs. the Ten Year Bond and the dollar index next January.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (2261)	8/29/2006 11:59:21 AM
From: Nihontochicken	Respond to of 50729

The $CRB definitely beginning to break south of its three year uptrend lower trend line (day old chart, worse today, SC will update after market close): stockcharts.com Note the $CRB is based on spot/futures and does not include gas/oils or PMs: crbtrader.com It's half-brother, the Morgan Stanley Commodity Index, is based on commodity company equity prices, and does include hydrocarbons and PMs: finance.yahoo.com The $CRX has not as yet broken its LT uptrend lower trend line: stockcharts.com Conventional wisdom might imply that, as is considered true for PMs, the equities should lead the futures/spot prices, which would say look at the $CRX, and don't panic yet. But the $CRB break downwards is hard to ignore. More conventional wisdom says that bond prices are generally inverse to the commodities index, which gives an investment consideration. As far as commodities inverse funds, I find only two narrow focus funds, SNPIX (oil/gas) and SPPIX (PMs). I would advise keeping an eye on the $CRX. If it starts to break down and follow the $CRB, then a large commodities downturn is in the cards. JMO, FWIW. NC

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (2261)	8/29/2006 1:16:35 PM
From: RonMerks	Respond to of 50729

Slider - Here's a gold guru that agrees with you. At least in the nearterm. I was surprised to finally read a candid interview with a precious metals fund manager. This guy came right out and said he is WORRIED. I was surprised by his candor. Anyway, here's the Street Dot Com article. Good as Gold in the Long Run By Simon Constable TheStreet.com Staff Reporter 8/26/2006 9:44 AM EDT Click here for more stories by Simon Constable Gold could be due for a selloff soon, according to Mark Johnson, portfolio manager of the USAA Precious Metals and Minerals fund. That's because much of the recent spike in prices is being driven by temporary geopolitical factors that simply won't last, he says. But Johnson also has some good news for the gold bugs longer term. With his portfolio boasting a five-year annual growth rate of 39.7% vs. an average of 32.3% for the Amex Gold Miners Index and an overall four-star rating from Morningstar, he's clearly doing something right. Speaking with TheStreet.com's Simon Constable, Johnson offered tips for investors looking to buy gold stocks. TheStreet.com: What's your view on gold prices? Johnson: In the short term I'm very concerned, for two main reasons. A lot of the recent [gold] rallies have been driven by geopolitical factors, such as Iran's nuclear ambitions, increasing violence in Iraq, Korea shooting missiles and the Israel-Hezbollah thing. Historically, such rallies tend to reverse, and just so much of the recent run-up has been geopolitical in nature. Second, prices are up so much year over year [around 45%] , that I think it will have an impact on fabrication demand: less gold bracelets for Christmas and more electronic goods. That makes me nervous for the short term. What about longer term? Longer term I'm positive, based mainly on the fact that the dollar is vulnerable to further declines due to the twin deficits [federal budget and trade] . In addition, the fact that the Fed has stopped raising rates, while foreign central banks are still lifting theirs, should lead to a flow of funds away from dollars into other currencies. Then you are seeing some wage price inflation and oil price inflation. Longer term, it's positive. Gold provides protection against inflation and against devaluations in the dollar. Both are distinct risks going forward. What are your top five holdings? The top stocks we own are Glamis Gold (GLG - commentary - Cramer's Take), Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM - commentary - Cramer's Take), Goldcorp (GG - commentary - Cramer's Take), [platinum producer] Lonmin, and Barrick Gold (ABX - commentary - Cramer's Take). Collectively, they account for 28% of the total portfolio [in decreasing order of size] . Portfolio turnover has been running slightly below 30%. We don't actively trade, and we aren't allowed to go short. Why do you like those stocks in particular? We try to construct an "all weather portfolio" by identifying high-quality companies with low production costs, long mine lives, strong balance sheets and good management. At Glamis, their cost of production is below $200 an ounce, and the same is true of Agnico-Eagle and Goldcorp. We also focus on companies with growth profiles: Glamis and Agnico-Eagle are both good growers, less so with Goldcorp and Barrick, but Lonmin has a reasonably good profile, also. These stocks are protected on the downside because of our focus on low-cost production. They will still generate earnings at $400-an-ounce gold, as well as positive cash flow. The stocks can definitely come down in price, but they definitely won't go bankrupt. There are companies that won't survive at $400-an-ounce prices. Do you own the bullion funds streetTRACKS Gold Shares (GLD - commentary - Cramer's Take) or iShares COMEX Gold Trust (IAU - commentary - Cramer's Take)? No bullion funds -- that's partially due to the unfavorable tax situation whereby the government taxes at close to two times the normal rate. And also, we have enough leverage to the gold price with the gold-mining stocks we own. The mining industry is going through a period of intense consolidation. Do you seek out any potential takeover targets? If we get one taken over, that's pleasant, but no, we don't seek them out. Any tips for our readers in picking stocks? Focus on the high-quality companies with growth profiles. In the end, gold is a commodity, as well as a currency, and in the long run, only the low-cost producers will survive.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (2261)	8/29/2006 1:17:36 PM
From: redfrecknj	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50729

Senate Staff report on market manipuation of oil and gas prices: Bottom line: Anyone from anywhere in the world can trade U.S. energy contracts without any oversight or audit trail. Allowed by law, of course. senate.gov The report also includes the top energy traders and their earnings

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (2261)	8/29/2006 3:32:07 PM
From: ecrire	Respond to of 50729

The US$ is key here and trumps recession effect on gold. The dollar has been in a tight trading range for months; is showing weakness today. If this turns out to be a trend change downward, then gold will stabilize, then rally/(Gold up $3.00 AH, presumably on dollar weakness.)

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (2261)	8/30/2006 10:28:51 AM
From: RonMerks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50729

Consumer Confidence and Commodity Weakness Heralding An Economic Slowdown. bigpicture.typepad.com The data keeps coming, and its getting harder for the perma-bulls to rationalize the information. Earlier in the month, University of Michigan Consumer Confidence plummeted the lowest level since last October; the blame went to "Terrorism fears and higher gasoline prices;" Since that August 18 report, gas prices have dropped significantly. This morning, it was the Conference Board's turn to release their data -- and their confidence index dropped the most since last September post-Hurricane Katrina. Blame for the drop this time went to "Weak Housing and the War in Iraq, and Employment." I have a different theory: Consumer Confidence is weak due to no real wage gains for more than 2 years; It is not Housing per se, but rather, the inability to extract equity via HELOCs that are to blame for the poor confidence showing. Even the reconstituted Leading Economic Indicators have continued to weaken: > LEIs, Year-over-Year percentage change, 3 years Indeed, when we look at the prime driver of this cycle's inflation -- commodity demand -- is starting to cool off. Spurred by weakness in oil, the Reuters/Jeffries CRB index is testing key 5-year uptrend. 5 Year Chart -- Commodities Source: Michael Panzner, Collins Stewart > One possible interpretation of that is the commodities market is anticipating cooling demand -- from the decrease in New Home construction, the slowing of the broader US economy, even a lessening of US purchases of goods made in China. This is a chart worth watching over the short term as it could be the canary in the coal mine . . . > > Sources: Consumer Confidence Tumbles MICHAEL S. DERBY WSJ, August 29, 2006 10:18 a.m. online.wsj.com U.S. Economy: Consumer Confidence Declines to Nine-Month Low Bob Willis Bloomberg, Aug. 29, 2006 bloomberg.com =acbsyoix71Ro&refer=home Slider you beat all these guys to the punch - great call so far. But, please-for the third time; what is your short, mid and longterm outlook for Silver? I'm an ex-silver permabull whose starting to wake up. TIA Ron

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (2261)	8/30/2006 6:16:39 PM
From: moonraker1	Respond to of 50729

A boom in PM equities is around the corner. The very low volume in many of the smaller gold and silver companies is a reflection of the lack of interest among the general public in the precious metal sector. Gold and Silver fundamentals are extremely bullish, and yet even the old-timers are out to lunch. This confirms the sentiment indicator, as does the lack of phone calls to brokers by investors in the PM sector. This suggests a giant move is coming. While it moves up, and the net worth grows, the lemmings and sheep will begin to come this way. That is when some of the smaller golds rip thru the Kingdom of Heaven. The 'OIL' you say, it will only help the PMs, if goes down. We are in a super-cycle that mirrors the 20-year bear market for commodities that started in 1980. In the short term 0 to 12, 18 months we see a high probability of economic woes leading to a major crash. That will be the time to re-enter base metal plays aggressively. Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication \|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (2261)	9/6/2006 1:34:51 PM
From: SargeK	Respond to of 50729

SOTB: >>>All Speculations end the same way... badly.<<< Hey Slider, does that apply to the US Economy?? It's operating on debt fumes, skepticism, government tax and welfare fraud, and speculation. When does it end? >g< SargeK P.S. To find an answer, visit my website: debtism.com or copy/paste this: Ready for Hard Times in your google search window. ciao

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (2261)	9/11/2006 12:21:10 PM
From: RonMerks	Respond to of 50729

One question about Don Coxe and your comments about him providing cover for the Institutions exiting commodity stocks. Slider, your post about that $250k presentation really got my wheels a turning and at my age, thats saying something. Now I know you said-dont ask. But, I have to anyway. Does it have something to do with what you said about Don Coxe and analysts providing cover for the instituions exiting - while they pump up the sector to the little guy? Thats my wild assed guess anyway. Hey Slide, this one is for you, I included your best bud's stock in with gold, silver, osx and xng I thought you'd enjoy it. Doesn't look like the Sinclair fans are HOLDING ON TIGHT to TRE today now does it? TRE down almost 10%. I'm going to make a wild assed guess that SOMEONE has launched a short raid on Sinclairs stock and is trying to push it below the marginable level of $5. If I'm right- I want another bone! Ron