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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RMF who wrote (201521)	9/6/2006 8:34:34 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Hawk...you know as well as I that those 15 provinces are only secure because they're being policed by their own militias. That's not correct. The Mahdi Militia is active in Sadr City, but they aren't welcome in Najaf or Karbala. The reason things are reasonably orderly within the Shia provinces is due to Al-Sistani's power over the Iraqi shi'a community. As far as the Mahdi Army, I think we should take al Sadr and ALL his top people out, or the Mahdi Army will definitely drive Iraq into civil war. Very sensitive territory there.. Al Sadr, as the only remaining son of the former Grand Ayatollah (who Saddam killed) has a considerable following. But both the Iraqi government and coalition forces have recently taken a more aggressive stance towards the Mahdi Army. And while I'm not sure if Muqtada Al-Sadr (MAS) has marching orders from his Iranian financiers/controllers to initiate civil war, he certainly is expected to maintain close ties to the Iranian regime and provide them influence. But I don't believe that MAS is the lapdog of the Iranians, his being an Arab and from a prestigious religious family. But there is a another Grand Ayatollah, Kazem Husseini Haeri, who MAS is directly tied to. He and Al-Sistant are rivals, and I suspect that MAS is the "foot in the door" that might permit Haeri to make a play in replacing Al-Sistani upon his death. The question is whether there is a relationship/alliance between Haeri and Ahmadinejad. Given that Haeri has invoked the Mahdi Army, and Ahmadinejad is a dedicated Mahdist, I would suspect that there is. Hawk