Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rolla Coasta who wrote (9121)	9/9/2006 9:06:18 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217648

MM, I can't get from your comments why what I wrote was wrong. I understand OPEC members can cut their production to zero if they like, which will cause a rapid price rise of oil. But how long do you think they'll keep that up. Initially, they would make heaps of money and it would seem like an idea they should have done decades ago. Oh, hang on. They did. What happened was that every man and his dog came up with ways of doing something other than buy OPEC oil. I earned my living doing that [in part]. Pretty soon, prices started dropping as power stations went to coal, more nuclear reactors were built and cars became more efficient and a myriad of things came on stream. Prices plunged as OPEC was unable to generate more sales without accepting lower and lower prices. But actual consumption didn't rise all that much. So, they went from selling a lot at $40 a barrel to selling not a lot more at $8.50 a barrel [and those dollars had been diluted, as they are each year]. Then, things rebalanced. They got back to the squeeze mentality, but prices were rising and Made in China was going gung ho and demand was rising and so they pumped more and more and made vast fortunes. Anyway, I've explained how the process goes. If you don't like it, fine. Each to their own ideas on how things work. Oil will never run out, other than in specific wells. Production will reduce, as people use other things to do what they want, when the price is right to do so. Oil will just quietly become a smaller and smaller part of the world's economy, as it has been doing in the USA since the early 1970s when BIG OIL and General Motors stood astride the country like Gulliver in Lilliput. It's amusing that people think the Iranians will use the "oil weapon", meaning cut supplies, to wound the west. In fact, the opposite is more likely, that the west will cut Iran's exports. Iran would suffer a lot more than the west from their production stopping. Iranian oil is only a small part of world production, but it's ALL of their income [more or less]. I could do without Iranian oil and barely miss a beat. I might ride a bicycle a few times for fun. Or the motor scooter. Or catch a bus. Or train. Or forego and overseas trip. None of those are much pain. But Iranians could get quite hungry if they couldn't repair their agricultural equipment because they couldn't afford the spare parts. I definitely don't want Islamic Jihad wielding nookular bombs. Box cutters were bad enough. With a few box-cutters they got the USA in uproar for half a decade. Pathetic really, but that's what you can achieve with hysterical people. They could allow box-cutters on aircraft now and there won't be another hijacking, even if the box-cutters are carried by Islamic Jihad. Can you imagine some Jihadist telling everyone to sit down, be quiet, I'm taking over the aircraft? There would be instant uproar and pillows, bags, belts, fists and all sorts would be burying them in moments. A pillow doesn't actually hurt, but a lot of them does make waving a knife around difficult and seeing the prospective victims too. The ridiculous thing was to leave cockpit doors standing ajar with passengers two steps from them. The geniuses running security have figured out now that that wasn't such a brilliant idea after all. Now they take Granny's tootpicks and lip balm, while sarin attacks in movie theatres or other crowded venues can be planned unimpeded. Or worse. How about smuggled nukes? While they have spent years looking in Granny's hand bag at airports, they have been cheerfully waving giant shipping containers through customs [who have been bribed to allow said nukes through - though they think they are only letting in another shipment of opium]. Mqurice