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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Moominoid who wrote (41)	9/11/2006 10:56:46 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27226

I sent out more graphs yesterday showing the Fed Model to the people on my "free stuff" mailing list. I said three things could happen: #1 Earnings could crash #2 Interest rates could go up #3 Stock prices could go up When you add in the other sentiment things I track, it seems that sentiment is so bad that up would be a decent guess unless #1 or #2 suddenly come out of nowhere. FWIW, I don't recommend market timing but for a very small part of your core and explore portfolio. ....there are confident ones; they move from ninety-ten in stocks-bonds to five-ninety-five in stocks-bonds. That implies a degree of self-confidence bordering on hubris and self-deception. Over the decades, when both groups...have equal limited (!) ability to "time," the cautious chaps who alternate between sixty-five-thirty-five in stocks-bonds and sixty-forty are likely to end up with a superior risk-corrected total return score. [Paul Samuelson, "Journal of Portfolio Management," Fall 1994]