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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (32532)	9/11/2006 5:12:05 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95609

Kirk, you could be right but I see some potential flaws in your reasoning. First UTEK and CACS may do tremendously well but maybe not as well as some other stocks. Second just because Cary's favorites did not outperform as well last cycle does not mean they will this cycle anymore than your favorites or mine. From a true bottom the best gains will probably come from buying a group of high beta stocks or using longer term option strategies on stocks like those that Cary favors (Lower beta stocks that are leaders in their industries). One big mistake you may be making is in thinking that we have already seen the bottom. Do you recall the 1987 bottom? If the market had followed a typical four year pattern that bottom would have occurred in 1986. gbr.pepperdine.edu It's idiotic to think that we will get a bottom on October 9 just because we had an October bottom in 1998 and 2002. I'm telling you that and I'm the guy who has been pounding the table for years about Presidential cycles and a possible October bottom. So while it may be stupid to think we will get and October bottom it may be just as silly to think the worst is behind us in the market. I'm not saying don't trade stocks. We have got a lot of pessimism in place as represented by the high CPC and ISEE. That is extremely positive. But we do not have all the elements in place that normally are the hallmarks of a cyclical bottom. We did not have them back in July either. Tell me why you think the SOX has bottomed? Is there no chance in your mind that there may be a recession in 2007? Are you certain that the market has fully factored in the economic risks that lending institutions have subjected us to through their ill advised extensions of loans to almost every individual who wanted to buy more house(s) than they could truly afford? How about all those who rolled all their credit card debts into a new home mortgage on the old homestead? What happens when all those people you know who used to work at the Dot.com and are now working in real estate lose their jobs? Does the inverted yield curve and low volatility in the market not worry you at all? RtS