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Politics : Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Kerry -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: American Spirit who wrote (79285)	9/14/2006 11:53:17 AM
From: TimF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 81568

IF their 80% off oil than your the one who is either mistaken or lying. 80% off means 20% on, not "kicking oil". I'm not sure what you mean by 80% off. A percentage by itself is fairly meaningless. They don't consume only 20% of the oil that they used to consume, so the most obvious meaning is false, but I can think of other possible meanings. It can't mean 80% of their oil imports have stopped because apparently about 100% of the oil imports have stopped. Now Brazil consumes approximately the same amount of oil as it produces and it might even become a minor oil exporter. Of course the oil imports have stopped, not just because of alcohol but also because of things like this - --- 2. Brazil's Oil Independence As President Bush chastises Americans for their oil addiction, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is declaring oil independence for his country. The leftist leader, widely known as Lula, introduced a brand-new offshore oil rig that will generate 180,000 barrels a day, bringing the country's total oil production to more than what Brazilians consume. Run by the state-controlled energy company Petrobras, the P-50 rig will create 1.9 million barrels of oil output a day – exceeding the 1.85 million barrels used by Brazilians daily. Eventually, the country would like to become an oil exporter, as it explores for more deposits off its oil-rich coast in the Campos Basin. Petrobras forecasts that by 2010, its production will exceed Brazil's needs by 300,000 barrels a day, according to the AP. newsmax.com "Brazil is set to achieve energy self-sufficiency this year, thanks in large part to its production of heavy oil. Most of its crude oil production is offshore in the Campos, Espírito Santo, and Santos basins in deep and ultra-deep waters, and the majority of oil in these basins is heavy. In fact, heavy oil constitutes nearly one-half of Brazil's proved oil reserves of 13 billion barrels, as the chart below illustrates." rigzone.com --- # In 2004 (latest year of statistics), Brazil produced 3.989 billion gallons of anhydrous (apparently denatured) ethanol, or 0.3 EJ/year. Ethanol production in Brazil has been fairly flat. # In 2005 Brazil consumed 83.6x10^6 metric tonnes of crude, or 3.6 EJ/year # For Brazil, ethanol is therefore 0.30/3.6 = 8.3% of crude oil energy. This fraction has been fairly constant. # In March 2006, the volumetric fractions of all transportation fuels consumed in Brazil were * Diesel fuel = 53.9% * Gasoline = 26.2% * Ethanol = 17% (40% of gasoline energy) * Natural gas = 2.9% # Therefore the energy in Brazil's gasoline is 0.3 EJ per year of ethanol / 40% = 0.75 EJ/year # The energy in US gasoline is 19.4 EJ/year # Therefore the overall ratio of gasoline energy in Brazil to gasoline energy in the USA = 0.75/19.4 = 3.87% # The population of Brazil is ~185 million people; the US population is 300 million people. # So, on a per capita basis, the ratio of gasoline in Brazil to gasoline in the USA = (0.75/185) / (19.4/300) = 6.2%. Stated differently, Brazilians' driving habits are equivalent to Americans driving 6.2% * 365 = 23 days per year, or every 16 days, roughly once every two weeks. Now, take ethanol's 40%, and with Brazil's biofuels bounty, Americans would drive 6.2% * 40% * 365 = 9 days per year, once every 40 days. In this context, is Brazil's ethanol "success story" worth writing home about? hubbertpeak.com -- RIO DE JANEIRO - Brazil needs more investments in oil exploration and production to maintain current reserve levels and its self-sufficiency in oil, executives at Brazil's state-run oil firm Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PBR), or Petrobras, and Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB.LN) said Monday. The country now produces slightly more than 1.8 million barrels of crude oil a day, with Petrobras accounting for 1.785 million b/d, Shell another 30,000 b/d and Repsol-YPF (REP) some 8,000 b/d. Brazil this year for the first time will be self-sufficient in oil once crude production surpasses the country's estimated current oil product consumption of about 1.85 million b/d. "At current production levels, Brazilian oil reserves would last 15.7 years," Jose Miranda, executive manager for exploration and production at Petrobras, said. "But consumption is estimated to increase by about 3% a year, that's not included in the estimate." (Note: Oil consumption in Brazil is increasing.

To: American Spirit who wrote (79285)	9/15/2006 11:03:23 AM
From: Glenn Petersen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 81568

While we should be emulating Brazil's example as it relates to our dependency on oil, your numbers are wrong. You also need to factor in the realities or our economy versus the Brazil economy. You can find a lot of useful information on Brazil and ethanol on richardred's board at: Subject 55246 The following piece is from the Energy Tribune. Note that the managing editor is Robert Bryce, the author of the poorly written, "Pipe Dreams: Greed, Ego and the Death of Enron." The Myth of Brazil’s Ethanol Success Certain media and politicians have been admonishing us to follow the success of Brazil’s sugarcane ethanol and gain independence from Middle East oil. Among other claims: ethanol has displaced 40 percent of crude oil use in Brazil. The real story isn’t so rosy. First, Brazil is a developing country whose consumption of crude oil is actually minuscule, 10 times less than the U.S. Interestingly, for the last 40 years, the energy consumed in Brazil as crude oil has been less than the total calorific value of corn grown in the U.S.! Second, if one divides the total energy of ethanol consumed in Brazil by the energy of crude oil consumed there (crude oil is used for many things other than gasoline) the ratio is a mere 8 percent. Third, Brazilians use twice as much diesel fuel as gasoline. The ethanol the country gets from sugarcane has added 40 percent only to the country’s gasoline supply. Fourth, Brazilians are now almost self-sufficient in crude oil thanks to their oil company, Petrobras. Thus, they are selling sugarcane ethanol to Sweden, the U.S., and other countries, while driving on petroleum products at home. Therefore, we should stop deceiving ourselves about the possibility of duplicating Brazil’s model unless we are prepared to do the following here in the U.S. •The U.S. must cut its oil consumption by a factor of 6 in order for its per capita oil use to equal Brazil’s. •To achieve this, all non-personal U.S. vehicles could be driven only one day per week. •And all passenger cars and SUVs could be driven only one day every two weeks. energytribune.com Message 22810529