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Strategies & Market Trends : Contrarian Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pcyhuang who wrote (141)	9/15/2006 11:33:14 AM
From: jsabelko	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4080

PCY, so you are into technical and chart reading? I have very limited understanding of this and would love to learn a thing or two. Can you explain to me in your words what william%R indicator is? thanks, joby

To: pcyhuang who wrote (141)	9/15/2006 12:00:33 PM
From: jsabelko	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4080

PCY, thanks for the explanation link, very helpful. So how do you decide on which stock to include in your sector. That is how many, what market cap. Why not use the sector indicator to give the buy signal but then only select the fundamentally best stock or few stocks within the sector. Answer may be just risk reduction, but i'd suspect returns would also potentially be better. thanks, joby

To: pcyhuang who wrote (141)	9/16/2006 1:09:00 PM
From: jsabelko	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 4080

PCY, you've given a couple examples of key criteria both for a stock and for a sector that you use as buy signals. Both are quite interesting and very much appreciated. I do have some questions concerning how you decide when to sell. Do you use the same indicators but now on the high side or do you have other rules/criteria. Also what happens when you're wrong, that is the stock or sector does not rally. How do you decide when to sell then? Do you use stops and if so when and how? Sorry for all the questions but deciding when to sell is tough for me. Thanks in advance, joby

To: pcyhuang who wrote (141)	9/16/2006 4:48:54 PM
From: gcrispin	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 4080

Last Wednesday, I purchased a starting position in PTEN for the following reasons. Message 22810534 I like the sector and am also watching NRB, GW, and HP. I think the fundamentals for PTEN are outstanding, and that was what led me to make my initial purchase. (bruin, I would be interested in your view on PTEN's income statements and balance sheet. However, I also like to use technical analysis as a way to help me with timing my purchases. In retrospect, I should have waited for a more extreme oversold condition to develop. I also like to make purchases late in the fourth quarter because of tax-loss selling. I am keeping these four stocks on my watch list to see what develops.

To: pcyhuang who wrote (141)	9/17/2006 1:17:39 AM
From: jimsioi	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4080

Williams %R gets oversold pretty easily. If you look at the one year chart of the same group of stock you'll find that its the next or second oversold condition that sets up the buy... stockcharts.com\|D\|K14 I see a little bounce coming, then another declining leg. I'll be watching for indicators that don't make new lows with price - divergence - and then a reversal up as a buy signal...Looks to me however that this commodity stock decline has at least the institutional fiscal year end selling to get through, mid October, and if there isn't much of a rally off that, year end tax loss selling will keep prices under pressure, unless something BIG comes along, like easier monetary policy by the FED and Japanese and a weaker dollar.... The new year rally will be slow to get off the ground as the economies of the world will be experiencing their maximum slowdown but the rally will extend without the hard down of this year, making the 2007 a good year for buys and holds... All the late comers have to get washed out and bearish mindset instilled before there's a turn...Good news: commercials in Crude are moving toward a flat position and those in Gold and Silver are less negative every week...The bottom will come but not till the bulls are fully worn out ...

To: pcyhuang who wrote (141)	9/26/2006 10:59:04 PM
From: Madharry	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4080

FWIW SIL is my single largest position., and has been for quite awhile.