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To: YanivBA who wrote (70138)	9/22/2006 9:30:09 PM
From: Arran Yuan	Respond to of 110194

Deflation is never and nowhere a monetary phenomena. Deflation is always and everywhere a business risk phenomena. (Copyright YanivBA, first used here – this applies to the entire post, please credit me for any use of this sentence or any of the rest). Great thinking! Deserve more than a copyright!

To: YanivBA who wrote (70138)	9/22/2006 10:24:54 PM
From: bart13	Respond to of 110194

I agree that CPI is far from a great measure of either inflation or deflation. But its a simple way of making the point. Do you have a better and more reliable measure, besides something like a John Williams adjusted CPI? I broadly define inflation as more money than goods & services, and deflation as its opposite. I also include credit as money, and we could probably agree on other general definitions of money too. But I reject that risk is a primary causative factor in deflations. Of course its a factor but I classify it in the sentiment area, and short cutting the logic a lot, opinions don't change by themselves. Actual events trigger changes in sentiment and I maintain that the key ones are related to changes in money creation rates. Here's another chart more clearly showing the same money and deflation/inflation relationship except this time from the '20s & '30s in the US.

To: YanivBA who wrote (70138)	9/23/2006 2:22:31 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

Discussion on Zeros globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mish

To: YanivBA who wrote (70138)	9/23/2006 3:34:07 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I want also to note that if you accept my definition of deflation and that deflation is not the opposite of inflation it is theoretically possible to have both a deflation and an inflation at the same time. The safe heaven that springs to mind is gold, of course, or possibly oil. However, things would have to get pretty volatile for those to be generally considered safe again. YanivBA. You definition is illogical It is like arguing that up is not the opposite of down. Of course one can define words to mean whatever one wants and that in fact is what people accuse me of when in fact I use a widely held definition (although not the most widely held definition). At any rate without acceptance of what practical use is there just to make stuff up? More to the point what use is there to have a term like that with no opposite but no opposite? What are you going to do, coin two new words that are the opposite of inflation and deflation? Please dont! If inflation is related to money supply it is not only pointless but silly to suggest deflation is not related to money supply but rather business risk. Now OK if you do not accept that inflation is a monetary thing then it is acceptable to suggest that deflation is not either, but to seriously propose that inflation and deflation are not opposites goes well beyond silliness to complete absurdity. Some people have proposed there is deflation is some things and inflation in others, and that is possible if one does not accept that inflation and deflation are monetary phenemon but related to prices of goods and services. But for any particular good or service it is impossible to have both inflation and deflation at the same time. Perhaps you are attempting to clear up the inflation/deflation debate but all you have done is sling more mud in the air. The idea that inflation equates to the CPI but deflation equates to business risk is therefore complete total nonsense. Mish

To: YanivBA who wrote (70138)	9/23/2006 3:50:41 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Check out this complete idiot. This is really amazing. Read the comments and past entries about admitting fraud. iamfacingforeclosure.com