i asked the same question at theoildrum.com
here are the responses so far:
Nick on Tuesday September 26, 2006 at 4:28 PM EST Comments top
Two thoughts. First, the latest article on this doesn't claim a 500 mile range, just talks about what 500 miles of driving would cost. The ultracapacitor they have planned would have a 52 KWHR capacity, which would be roughly 250 miles of range.
Second, this company has been around for at least 5 years, trying to get this to work. It's a very tall order, as they have to attain voltages that have never been seen before in ultracapacitors, apparently through unprecedented purity of traditional UC materials. They seem to be making progress: they have KPCB backing, and they have a contract with Feelgood electric automaker and the automaker has been making progress payments, so apparently something is happening.
They are being secret: my best guess is that this is because the key purification process isn't patented yet.
It's a long shot, but if it works it changes everything.
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jkissing on Tuesday September 26, 2006 at 4:47 PM EST Comments top
This is exactly what scares teh saudis, that something will come along that will change everything. It probably won't, but maybe many partial solutions will in fact help out.
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Nick on Tuesday September 26, 2006 at 4:56 PM EST Comments top
Heck, they've been scared for 25 years, ever since Carter's CTL program proved out at prices over $40/BBL. That's why they did their best ever since to keep prices under $35.
Now, of course, they've lost control. They know that at these prices alternatives are coming. They're just holding their breath, and hoping that they take as long as possible to arrive.
Of course, when they do the royal family will just pack their bags and go to Europe, to become part of the free floating european wealthy.
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memmel on Tuesday September 26, 2006 at 5:52 PM EST Comments top
The problem being a tech guy is deployment.
For example consider building a building today vs in 1960.
Lets say we do it twice as fast today as we did then.
Sounds good until you start running number for widescale deployment. How long for example to deploy light rail ?
Your talking decades to make a serious dent in oil usage.
And this is considering a lot of key work is not only not in production now but in the labs your start realizing that we may be in serious trouble.
Basically we need 10-15 years or reasonable oil supplies to convert from a oil based economy we don't have the time.
I'm not saying we won't convert but since we have waited well past the last minute it will ugly.
Every year we go without a concerted effort to get off oil from now on out probably double's the pain.
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[new] Everett on Tuesday September 26, 2006 at 6:14 PM EST Comments top
I am skeptical.
* They are trying to combine the very thin dielectric layer of an ultracapacitor with high voltages, like 3000 volts. I think that catastrophic dielectric breakdown is quite a possibility.
* I'm not aware of motors that run on such high voltage, or of efficient and compact ways to convert the power to lower voltage/higher current.
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[new] memmel on Tuesday September 26, 2006 at 6:57 PM EST Comments top
Electrostatic motors make a comeback ?
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jaha on Tuesday September 26, 2006 at 8:22 PM EST Comments top
500*1.61=805km, $9/0,10=90kWh if electricity is 10cents/kWh (I really don't know if this price sounds reasonable)
90/805=11,18kWh/100km
11,18kWh*3,6=40,25MJ
assuming 90% efficiency of the electric motor that's 40,25*0,90=36,23 MJ of work put into the transmission. A gasoline engine with a 20% efficiency would have to spend 36,23*5=181,13 MJ of gasoline to do the same work.
assuming 32MJ/liter of gasoline that's 181,13/32=5,66L/100km, a bit more than what you would expect from a small new car today, so the claim of $9/500 miles sounds reasonable if we further assume the car this motor will be powering isn't an SUV or similar. that would be 42mpg if a US gallon is 3,8 liters.
A ferrari, driven like a ferrari, probably wouldn't need 500 miles to use those 90kWh with a 4-500kW motor, I don't think the acceleration, deceleration and speed of a ferrari would compare to the fuel efficiency of a Peugeot 307/VW Golf type of car driven sensibly.
The charging would be tricky ofcourse, 90 kWh would take 23,5 hours of max load through a standard 240Volt 16Amp circuit, so it wouldn't be wise run the "tank" dry, but rather to top it off at every opportunity. I imagine a way to swap the battery/capacitator in the car with one that has been charging overnight, or to have a capacitator sitting in your garage soaking up power (off-peak preferably), then unloading it quickly through some very thick cables when you need a charge would be more convenient.
Disclaimer: I am very tired at the moment, so the calculations, assumptions and facts could therefore be very wrong, but the numbers look plausible enough to me in my current state. |
