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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Arran Yuan who wrote (9717)	9/27/2006 3:34:39 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 217668

China has had very good economic leadership for the past 15 years. At some point in the future, that may revert towards the mean. I expect that the GDP will have doubled or more before that happens. After about 20+ years (a generation) of rapid economic growth, I expect there will be some loss of prespective, and more difficulty making tough decisions, like those Hu is making now. The US has recently had some very bad leadership, especially in foreign policy, since 1993. That should change in 2009. One view traces the decline in US foreign policy to the end of the Soviet Union, after which many foreign policy professionals either retired or moved to other challenges. The US economic leadership became too clever for their own good around 1996-1997, where the USD became so strong it triggered the Asian currency crisis, and then policy makers and politicians found they could get many short term benefits from weakening the US Dollar. Now Ben Bernacke and friends, have stopped the housing bubble, and if the comming recession is mild and they don't over react, consumers will stop growing debt loads. There is still inflationaery pressure which will persist for about another 2 to 4 years from all the money that was printed, bu that may be tending toward containment.