Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (70488)	9/27/2006 7:18:52 PM
From: gold$10k	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Hi orkrious, For a long time I have had a 70's analogy in mind. Message 18567341 I am also aware that the the DOW made nominal new highs in late 1973 (as it did today) before the hammer fell. That makes Fleck's comments all the more interesting, even if the timing is somewhat different from what I had anticipated 3 1/2 years ago. Thanks for posting the link. vt

To: orkrious who wrote (70488)	9/28/2006 9:24:29 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 110194

one of the reasons i stopped subscribing to Fleck is that he writes anecdotal bearish crap all the time. every week he posts some gloom and doom story, so it can always look like he's predicting the end. in my opinion anecdotes are a dime a dozen. they are interesting to shake your head at but what do they really tell you. they aren't statistically meaningful. so he knows a couple oldtimers who remember the pain of 1973; what does that mean? it doesn't mean anything. it is just another random anecdote. if somebody looked at all his random anecdotes from over the years, i would guess their correlation with the events he is "predicting" ex ante is no better than chance. to give you a different anecdote, Arnold Van Den Berg, whose performance at Century Management since the early 1970s has probably blown Fleck out of the water, is EXTREMELY bullish on US large caps. and that is a guy who has lived through some bear markets. for reference see the latest issue of Outstanding Investor Digest (the only investment publication i know of recommended by Warren Buffet). i wonder if Fleck's short fund has even made money at all over the past ten years. if he is so smart why doesn't he publish his fund's historical results on his website? somebody who bought an SPX index fund in 1996, when Fleck started writing his bearish stuff, and subsequently went to sleep for a decade, has doubled his money. what has Fleck done? did his short fund double investors' money after fees over that period? does all this mean the market can't tank? of course not. i just don't think whatever Fleck says about it carries much weight. i think the opinions of people like Van Den Berg, who have the results and show them, carry much more weight. here's an example of a bear fund and what it's done over the last decade. BEARX turned an investor's $9 into $6; worse than a mattress!