To: SargeK who wrote (2509 ) 10/25/2006 2:52:47 PM From: SargeK Respond to of 50280 Politics, Taxes, and Markets Outcome of the mid-term elections may be pivotal and have profound impact on the economy and the markets. Few can effectively argue that the following events DID NOT prevent the 2001 recession from evolving into a significant economic contraction and have strongly supported the recovery and current, robust economic conditions. Also, few can argue, that significant stimulus has been provided by an explosion of actuarial government liabilities (explicit and implicit exposures). Since the recession, US government fiscal exposures have increased at 2 ½ times the rate of IRS tax collections. “Revitalization of the economy is not without costs. Each cyclical recovery over the past several decades has required more stimulation than the one that preceded it. This one has taken the largest deficit spending in history, 13 successive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, two massive tax cuts, three wars (War on Terrorism, Afghanistan and Iraq), establishment of another redundant bureaucracy (Homeland Security), massive tax incentives (i.e. Capital Gain and Dividend tax rate reductions to 15%), significant growth in Money Supply, short term negative interest rates, a tax induced housing ‘boom’ and a ‘low-interest’ induced mortgage refinancing ‘Boom’ to emerge from the relatively short 2001 recession.” debtism.com Funding the wars and hurricane recovery efforts with the national credit card has further exasperated the explosion in national debt and placed the future economy and the national security at greater risks. Adding the prescription drug benefit to Medicare also added trillions $ to a welfare system that was already unsustainable. The belated focus on actuarial long-term liabilities by the GAO and Trustees of the various Trust Funds; may be an indication that the government is acknowledging that ominous problems face current and future policy makers; and, they may wish to stake future claims that the public “was” warned BEFORE the general public discover they have been victimized. There are growing indications that the public is worried about the future. With the budget sinking deep into deficit, savings rates below zero, interest on savings after adjusting for taxes and inflation below sub-zero, and the Baby Boom’s retirement fast approaching, many prudent Americans are beginning to review their balance sheets, to develop strategies for surviving the inevitable economic downturn. Unfortunately, it’s easier to acknowledge the economic and generational challenges facing an aging America than it is to fix them. Needed, lasting reforms will require difficult tradeoffs that few politicians in either party are willing to address. It won’t happen until America’s workers become outraged and/or when the economic bubble begins to deflate. Results of the past two presidential elections presented rare opportunity for fundamental changes in flawed government tax, welfare, immigration, and trade policies that threaten national security. Surprisingly, government policies increasingly continue to pander the wealthy and the poor, punish the middle class, and put our great nation at great economic risks. Imprudent spending on the national credit card over the past several years is a slap in the face of fiscal conservatism and constituents of that group are angry. It is time for the general public to take a cold shower in reality. First, citizens must be made aware of the magnitude of the problem. The scope of the problem is no secret in Washington. Economists from both political parties warn that the nation's economy is at risk from chronic deficits and the fast-approaching costs of under/unfunded liabilities. Some say our national security may become at risk. However, one should not dismiss the fact the US commands the mightiest military force ever assembled under one flag. The government is expected to do whatever it takes to support dollar hegemony (a significant contributor to American prosperity since WWII) and perceived long-term US strategic interests. Curiously, both are threatened by unsustainable, unredeemable DEBT that is growing exponentially. The coming election offers the prospect that Democrats, California Representative Nancy Pelosi has strong odds of becoming Speaker of the House of Representatives, and it is possible that Senator Harry Reid of Nevada may become Senate Majority Leader. President Bush's, 2003 Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act (JGTRRA), was signed into law in May 2003. JGTRRA reduced the long term capital gains tax rate from 20 to 15 percent and the tax placed on dividend income from 38.6 to 15 percent. Lower income investors are subject to dividend and capital gains tax rates at 5 percent. If Democrats take over both houses of Congress, a prudent person might ask: “What will happen to the Bush tax-cuts?” He also might ask: “What happens to the markets, if the Bush tax-cuts are rescinded?” Not the reality, but the perception of market reactions to answers to these questions, might lead a prudent investor to take profits before reality catches up with perception. The public is being fed a steady diet of disinformation that supports the big lie that deficits are going DOWN; when the TRUTH is government fiscal, exposures are exploding by trillions – annually. Sadly, the ruling elite that has orchestrated tax and welfare fraud for decades will likely benefit again, when they buy real assets for pennies on the dollar at the nadir of the next depression. Forewarned is forearmed! Good luck to ALL, SargeK By John Koraska, author: “Getting Ready for Hard Times" debtism.com