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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Perspective who wrote (71619)	10/11/2006 8:04:43 AM
From: Robin Plunder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

"And so much for the consumer-led recession. Look at retail sales - UFB. I guess I missed some source of funding for this. Where is the money coming from? I hate being wrong. Is it ego? No, not really. It's just that every time I'm wrong, it costs me money. And I've been wrong a lot more than right lately. There just seems to be no consequences from the dominoes that fall yet. Am I bitter? Just a tad. I'm sick and tired of watching PigMen playing with Other People's Money, with risk-free no-lose propositions: make 20% of any profits, but don't participate in any losses. It's a system designed to fail. The only thing more foolish is the fact that I didn't rush out and start my own hedge fund. So I ask you - how can I quit being wrong? Is there any better way to figure out if the economy is weakening for real? I can complain ad nauseam about the ridiculous prices on many stocks, and the implausible scenarios that must be assumed to make them a rational investment, but for all that the simple fact remains: I've been wrong about the economy, corporate profits, and consumer spending for so long now that I can't remember what it feels like to be right. If I could just get a better grasp on those, I wouldn't lose so much darned money. Heck, I might even make a buck here or there like I used to in the good ol' days... Sorry for the rant. If you haven't guessed, I've been forced to throw in the towel on a whole bunch of positions in recent days. I'm just stunned that we somehow seem to be avoiding recession even a full year following the housing peak." Good summary, I have had the same feelings over the last few years....so far I have done OK by reducing exposure to things that weren't working (shorts) and holding my positions on those things that were working (gold)..but who knows, that situation might flip-flop in a minute....best recommendation: keep the day job, the stock market is very difficult, not so bad as long as you have a good paycheck, I wouldn't want to try to make a living off the market,tho, too hard to predict...Didn't Jay Chen go to cash back in august...nice, warm, safe cash as he puts it... Robin

To: Perspective who wrote (71619)	10/11/2006 9:46:17 AM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 110194

A large part of my investment outlook and experience parallels yours. I did, however, move to the long side in Canadian energy, especially royalty trusts and oil sands, and that has kept me solvent. I did make money repeatedly shorting and covering the QQQs at the right time, but in large part my continued bearishness has eroded my capital. But I am not giving up, except that I am currently more inclined to edge into 4-week T-bills instead of adding to leveraged bear funds.

To: Perspective who wrote (71619)	10/11/2006 12:29:34 PM
From: benwood	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I agree with what your saying, and your sentiment. I believe the US markets are much closer to what Japan had in the 80s (and today I presume) -- a rigged game. I can't shake this image that there's so much inflatability from so many sources now that it's like a tire tube with 100 valves and the Feds, dozens of hedge funds, and other high powered players all have a pump, and can pretty much pump at will. The game will be one to shake j6p from his money and also blow up other hedge funds/big traders. It's detachment from reality (the economy) increases daily. I think when it gives, it will be a true rupture (you get to keep your clothes but nothing else) and then everything will be exposed, protections [re]-put in place, etc. But until then, it's just a video game at JPM and many other pig men video arcades. All the more reason for the US gov't to force citizens into the game (the Social Security Benefit Reduction Plan and Wall Street Fee Enhancement Program) else we wise up and want O-U-T permanently. --Ben