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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: westpacific who wrote (72272)	10/18/2006 5:38:32 PM
From: Mr.Creosote	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

West, I am sure that you, Russ, and a few other well meaning folks have your reasons for fearing the long position here but why would you even consider shorting the strongest time period of the year? Especially in a strong uptrending environment? BTW, I am sure you know that the October-to-December time frame is the best one to execute long strategies. I am sure that there is good reason why smart market researchers like John Hussman is looking to deploy long on any pullback from these levels. The reason his fund has been UNDER-performing over the last couple of years is because he went bearish too soon and hedged his long exposure by 100%. BTW, he is not the only one. As for "technical" guys you mentioned, I don't think they have a clue what's going on because at any given time half of them are bullish and the other half are bearish. After years of looking at what they do and following along I no longer have any repect for them. They are the "numerologists" of our time :) In retrospect, the mere suggestion that one can predict the future course of price movement simply by only looking at its past is laughable to say the least. The things that are important to me are (1) Trend, (2)Seasonality, (3) Sentiment. IMHO all of these are bullish. Sorry, for telling it like it is but somebody has to. Eventually the elevator will come down but now is NOT the time because ... it's moving up! Creo