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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jamey who wrote (2935)	10/22/2006 6:42:56 PM
From: re3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50135

you might be interested in checking out posts linked from trotsky on the dollar...

To: Jamey who wrote (2935)	10/22/2006 7:23:00 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Respond to of 50135

this chart is ugly, but it has potential thru jan. Message 22931616 pause, and then stagflation 70's style. when does the conference room open? I'm done with the shitty vegees and dip and bottom shelf scotch? plus i got a chick upstairs in the room. this better be good.

To: Jamey who wrote (2935)	10/22/2006 7:32:10 PM
From: roguedolphin	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 50135

Bring on the Smackdown! Just got got done doing some Sunday shopping. Was pretty surprised to see that one of my favorite little "dollar stores" has most merchandise priced more than a dollar now. Most items that were available just months ago at a buck are now priced at the silly price of $1.30. Pretty hard to deny that the purchasing power of the US dollar is withering away. Gold may have done it's "job" on the run to $725 a few months ago.....unless the erosion in purchasing power of the US dollar is curtailed... Gold may have to run to more than $725 to send it's next message??? How can Bernanke cut interest rates with all the "printing" going on to fund the massive US twin deficits?? IF he does or the market percieves he will cut rates....will the Gold BULL run again??? Rogue

To: Jamey who wrote (2935)	10/22/2006 7:49:38 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50135

Mama's dont let your babies grow up to be gold bugs . Mama don't let your babies grow up to be gold bugs… Don't let 'em margin juniors & explorers or they’ll be driving old trucks, Make 'em be value players, contrarians and such. Mama don't let your babies grow up to be gold bugs… They're always waving pom-poms and they'll always be broke, Whatcha expect after listening to TA from Sinclair and Cliff Droke. Gold bugs ain't easy to love and they're still harder to hold… Give ‘em an exit at the top and they’ll still find a way to fold. Lonestar belt buckles and old faded Levi's… With each correction begins a new day and more yellow lies. And if you don't understand him and he don't die broke. He'll just fade away… Waitin’ another 20 years for his next golden pay-day. Thought we'd open smackdown with a little Waylon & Willie... Mo coming up, SOTB That oughta get the nest stirred up a bit...

To: Jamey who wrote (2935)	10/22/2006 9:01:02 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 50135

re: [" The variables to consider are increased terrorism, Iraq, Iran, North Korea and Afghanistan. Also the instability and criminal activities of this administration will add to the positives for gold."] Gold bugs are beating dead horses Santi. These horses have all been rode hard and hung up wet. -- This is not 1979. We do NOT have wage inflation. In fact, thanks to China -- we have wage deflation. -- Another fallacy is setting price, or fair value targets for gold based on re-pricing it for inflation since 1980. Gold is the barometer of inflation – you don’t re-price the barometer. If you don’t believe this is true – ask yourself WHY, for over 20 years of continual, non-stop inflation in the US; that gold collapsed for two decades? Why didn’t the market “re-price” gold for inflation in that timeframe? -- Bugs only speak, hear, or see the parts of history they want to speak, hear, or see. The last great speculative run for gold ended in 1981 AFTER Central Banks finally acted. This one also ended AFTER Central Banks finally acted (17 straight Fed Rate hikes) and the removal of the punch bowl. -- The time to own (overweight and leverage) gold, is when inflation is being ignored...or, when Central Banks are reflating the economy, or stimulating it with interest rate cuts. Not AFTER they’ve taken action to stop it. -- Why did gold bugs ignore the collapse of the housing bubble and the homebuilder stocks? Could you have had any better sign of what was yet to come for gold? -- Gold bugs only see one side of every trade. The entire world was all loaded up on the short-side of the U.S. Dollar trade. Why didn’t anyone else pound the table on this? And even if you believe in the imminent death of the dollar… WHY would you pay a $250 premium in the price of gold ($700) to offset the same basic US Dollar level that only required you to spend $450 months earlier? -- The death of the U.S. Dollar has been greatly exaggerated. Believe it, or not... I don't like the principle of Fiat Currency any more than you, or any other card carrying gold bug does. But, unlike you, I realize the there is no other currency that presently can replace it. And if you're waiting for the return of the gold standard any time soon... good luck. All the U.S. Dollar has to be... is the "best of the worst" of all the other Fiat currencies... and that's doesn't take much. There is no replacement on the horizon. -- Gold bugs seem only to see things one way. When they saw the Oil:Gold ratio… they saw only one outcome. Gold closing the gap to oil and moving ever higher. Instead, Oil collapsed and gold folded. -- Hard core bugs won’t even face reality. The collapse of the HUI gold bugs index from 401 to 280; is the equivalent of the DOW collapsing 3,559 index points! If the DOW collapsed 3,559 points and traders came on CNBC telling the public – not to worry, that the bull market was still in place …they’d be laughed off the air. But, yet that’s what gold bugs are doing here. Denial by any other name is still – denial. -- And you want to hang your hat on “geopolitics.” Hmm? Oil is the best barometer of Mid-East unrest and what has Oil done? It’s collapsed. Gasoline has collapsed, as has Natural Gas. But, yet bugs huddle in denial and hope for Armageddon. -- U.S. Deficits are falling and the U.S. Dollar is rising. We finally have a U.S. Treasury Secretary with some gravitas with both the markets and the global Central Bankers. But, yet gold bugs live in denial. -- When Amaranth & Mother Rock blew up, did any of the gold bugs stop and think that just maybe; like the very next day… that hundreds, if not thousands of traders would be hauled in to meetings and have their positions in commodites put under a microscope? Did you think that maybe, just maybe …there would be some “de-leveraging” of the commodity trade? -- And poor Warren Buffett. You held him up as your Champion when he made his massive short bet against the US Dollar and accumulated a hoard of Silver. But, when he closed his Dollar short announced that he had sold his Silver… you chastised him. And you wonder why I keep bringing up the See No Evil, Hear No Evil, Speak No Evil analogy? -- Bugs refuse to think outside the box. Here’s another example of not respecting the other side of the trade. Bugs look at the Central Banks not having sold their full quota of Gold as only being a bullish signal. The other way of looking at it, is that they’ve still got a helluva lot of gold to unload should they want to. -- Another reality is the shift of power that may come with the 2006 & 2008 elections. Bugs failed to price this into their bullish equation, but the market did not. Virtually every catalyst for gold has either turned the other direction, or has failed to rally gold. We just saw Iran unleash Hezbollah to fire rockets into Israel. We then saw Israel invade Lebanon. Iran is ignoring threats from the U.S. and the U.N. North Korea is testing Nukes… and the US Dollar, not Gold has rallied. The question that all the gold bugs who have been calling bottoms since May; should have asked themselves is this: Is this correction one of time, the tape (price), or causation? Time-wise… it’s been nearly 6 months. Price-wise…it’s been 100-120 index points on the HUI and $120-$150 for the price of Gold. Presently, it doesn’t appear that either time, or price are driving this correction. And that’s every bugs nightmare…because that leaves – “causation.” And that “causation” was the massive speculation that started after the twin strikes of hurricanes Katrina & Rita. If the correction in gold needs to take out that entire speculative move… there’s still a long way to go. The chart below…could be forming the right shoulder of every gold bugs worst nightmare. Denial by any other name... is still denial. SOTB