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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (25090)	10/22/2006 7:22:00 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78958

Spekulatis - That's a very good point regarding Deposit/market and especially when they grow as a result of an acquisition. This may be the hidden metric that I (and perhaps Paul) am looking for. From your experience, do these deposits disappear over time from a buyout or is it something that the acquiring bank can build upon and creates value for the stockholder? When a bank has a growing deposit base, they do not depend on going to the open market for future funds and as a result are less impacted by a flat or negative yield curve. This would result in the eventual growth in their book value, overall ROA and positive ROE for the investor. I own a situation where this is playing out with NYB (New York Community Bancorp Inc.). They recently acquired Atlantic Bank of New York and as a result their overall deposit base grew. There was some goodwill involved in the transaction but now that they have a diversified growing deposit base, they are less subject to the effect of the inverted/flat yield curve when financing their portfolio loans. NYB is still near it's five year lows but I have to assume that the value proposition is improving. Both the ROA and ROE seem to be in an acceptable ranges and now that their deposit loan base is growing, this should help their book value (when adjusted for goodwill write downs). I am not too worried about their nonperforming loans as their business model provides for their portfolio loans to turnover frequently. Earnings come out Wednesday and will be interesting to see what they say. The stock sold off on 3x the normal volume last week and as a value investor I nibbled at a few more shares. NYB is my 2nd largest holding and I expect the company to turn the corner very soon. I believe fair value is around $20-$22/share once the yield curve goes positive or new deposit grow is high enough to offset the flat yield curve. The company is at the point where (1) their earnings have stabilized and will begin to grow OR (2) their high "relative" dividend will be cut. If (2) occurs, then it may become a value trap or perhaps the BUY of the decade! EKS

To: Spekulatius who wrote (25090)	10/27/2006 8:02:31 AM
From: blankmind	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78958

spek & others, - i've made $$'s on every MHC-type bank i've invested in - how can you not - when the stock trades at a fraction of book value & they're making enough to cover the dividend - on these MHC-type banks - such as CSBK - the # of shares in the public hands is what counts - which is only about 40% of the total shares o/s - so be careful on per share analysis - currently - my money is on CSBK - they're in the middle of their 3rd "5% share buyback" - stock is @ $11.61 - & real book value $18-20/share

To: Spekulatius who wrote (25090)	6/27/2007 1:43:48 AM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78958

Community bank - OSBK. This Mutual bank just did finish their 2nd step demutualization. Trading at 8.35$ which is substantially below below tangible book value (9.9$). This dinky Bank is very overcapitalized 35.3M$ equity with a 126M$ balance sheet and located in the boonies, so i don't think that Citibank will buy them out. But the stock is cheap and the bank is growing. I suspect that they need to find a use for their excessive capital, either buy another bank and/or buy back stock. Community bank stocks are not fancied now, but i think OSBK is worth a shot - i bought a position today.