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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: slacker711 who wrote (56342)	10/25/2006 10:48:15 AM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 196830

Japanese mobile number change causes open war technology.timesonline.co.uk From Leo Lewis in Tokyo ELECTRONICS stores across Japan experienced one of their busiest days on record yesterday as an estimated 200,000 mobile users switched operators and, for the first time, kept their old number after the change. Although mobile number portability (keeping the same phone number when changing operators) and brisk levels of customer “churn” have been features of the UK mobile phone scene for many years, Japan had always resisted freeing its domestic market to cut-throat European-style competition. But as “portability day” finally dawned amid a blitz of advertising, the country’s three main mobile operators emerged from their government-protected bubble ready for war. NTT DoCoMo, KDDI and Softbank have made it clear how hard they will fight for a share of Japan’s 93 million mobile customers: they will battle on price, on giveaways and on the shade of pink most favoured by high school girls. By the earliest estimates of electronics shopkeepers, the first round appeared to have been won by KDDI, whose line-up of 12 new handsets is understood to have lured 100,000 people away from other network providers. A slightly smaller number is thought to have defected to NTT DoCoMo, which has employed a squadron of about a dozen celebrities to endorse its brand. As the market currently stands, Softbank inherited about 15 million users from Vodafone, KDDI has about 25 million and NTT DoCoMo retains clear leadership with 51 million users. The main loser of yesterday is believed to be Softbank, the operator of what used to be Vodafone’s Japanese unit, and a victim of the British company's legacy of underinvestment in the network. In polls conducted before portability came into effect, Softbank users expressed the strongest wish to change networks, chiefly because the old Vodafone network gets poor reception. Japan’s grudging adoption of mobile number portability has been repeatedly postponed and hampered by supposedly insuperable technical problems. Some analysts believe that customer inertia and the universally applied 5,100 yen (£25) switching fee will, in the long run, turn the entire portability revolution into a damp squib. One source of that doubt is that, although changing operators can now be undertaken without losing the old phone number, the user’s mobile e-mail address does change: for Japanese aged between 13 and 35, said one Nomura telecoms analyst, this is more disruptive to their social lives than changing phone numbers. The earliest and clearest sign that Japan’s mobile sector has been thrown into a price war came from Softbank. The night before number portability began, the company announced price reductions and free calls to other users on the same network. The plan is a taste of what is likely to come when, according to the Multimedia Research Institute, the pool of customers constantly switching between operators swells to ten million.

To: slacker711 who wrote (56342)	10/25/2006 12:29:53 PM
From: limtex	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196830

slacks what happened to download speeds of 2Mbps? was i dreaming? best, L

To: slacker711 who wrote (56342)	10/25/2006 1:43:56 PM
From: Jim Mullens	Respond to of 196830

Slacker, Re: Anadigics (WDMDA) datapoints, and “...GREAT news for Qualcomm.” Thanks again for your continued / timely industry research / insight. Most of that which has been reported has impacted the Q negatively, but from your posts and other reports IMO it’s been pretty much a mixed bag. NOK and TXN (coincidentally ?) report their problems centered around the “light” uptake of WCDMA in Euroland and Japan (app processor shortfall) also for TXN. However, deep in the TXN CC, they revealed their problem to be more than 3G----- “ So partly 3G, maybe just in general high-end smart phone type of technology.”... So again, low-end, maybe if anything, doing better than expected. But 3G and high-end just in general doing less than what we expected. Motorola stated in their CC >>> Snips >>>>>>>> WCDMA (3GSM / UMTS) >>>>>>>>>> Europe was a little bit of a challenge in the quarter, largely due to 3G. Having said that, RAZR continues as the top seller in Western Europe. To drive 3G momentum in Q4, we're launching, of course, our RAZRXX and RAZRMAXX, and I will talk about those in just a minute. Across the board, with the exception of the CDMA MOTOFONE, I expect these to be October and early to mid-November shipments, making sure that we hit that all-important, fill the channel for the holiday season. Quite honestly, in Q3, as Europe has become more of a UMTS market, our products really that meet those needs are Q4 products; they weren't Q3 products. CDMA >>>>>>>>>. Our CDMA business was solid, and as I said earlier, our GSM business was down primarily in the Europe, Middle East and Africa area. The fact that it's (iDEN) now CDMA as well, and therefore it has a broadband length, I believe that consumers will find that more valuable. . CDMA was a business that wasn't as profitable. However, that team has worked unbelievably well, and has partnered unbelievably well with QUALCOMM to make that a nicely profitable business. <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< VOD is striking bullish on WCDMA >>> Slacker Post>>>> The press release from Vodafone detailing their Christmas handset lineup. vodafone.com - Six total HSDPA handsets of which 3 are from Samsung and 3 are from Motorola. - Qualcomm is likely inside nine of the 24 3G handsets....6 Samsung, 2 LG and 1 Huawei. - A 3G version of the LG Chocolate is among the non-exclusive handsets that Vodafone is planning to launch. <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< By Christmas>>>>> VOD new handsets...........31 3G Capable.......................24 Percent of total 77% HSDPA Capable...............06 Percent of total 19% Vodafone 710 free with contract / £80 for pre-paid users . VOD- Spain / Italy Investors day - 50% of handsets sold are now 3G <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< Anadigics - Bullish WCDMA Snip from your post today >>>>>>> - Anadigics stated that WEDGE shipments were up 64% sequentially. This is GREAT news for Qualcomm. Anadigics constantly talks about the advantage of being in Q's WEDGE/HEDGE reference designs so I have to believe that MSM's are associated with a big percentage of their shipments. Total WEDGE revenues was above $8 million (about 18% of revenue). <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< Japan number portability impact beginning in October – This should be very bullish for the Q with respect to KDDI sales, and all carriers as Japan is virtually all 3G and churn from carrier to carrier results in more handset sales. "By the earliest estimates of electronics shopkeepers, the first round appeared to have been won by KDDI, whose line-up of 12 new handsets is understood to have lured 100,000 people away from other network providers."" <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< Bottom line, from the above, it appears to me that despite the NOK & TXN reports, 3GSM (WCDMA) and other data points should be beneficial to the Q for both their 4Q06 and 1Q07 guidance, 4Q especially since we’ve not had interim updates to mitigate the positive “surprise” factor. Secondly, with the street guidance for FY07 at $1.82, only ~10% above FY06 ($1.63---$1.67???), the Q should be able to conservatively guide FY07 to ~ $1.90 and still handily beat the street consensus.