Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mistermj who wrote (206965)	10/25/2006 11:49:10 PM
From: jttmab	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Peak oil huh? From the list.... (10/19/2006) HOEC's Vinayak off SE India fails to find hydrocarbons (10/19/2006) Deepwater Huntsman fails to find mark off Western Australia (8/21/2006) Sinopec fails to find significant pay in Iranian block (8/8/2006) Hycarbex's Al Ali-1 fails to find significant gas reserves [Gas? I thought you were talking about "oil"] I think you'll find, if you actually read through the list that there are quite a few gas explorations. Myanmar, for example is gas. You'll also find that a discovery doesn't necessarily mean that they are commercially viable. Even with the oil finds that doesn't necessarily mean there is an increasing capability to produce oil on a global measure. Existing oil wells are been depleted. Are you going to continue to find and commercially produce oil at a rate that exceeds the depleting oil production of existing fields? This does require reading if you dare. peakoil.net jttmab

To: mistermj who wrote (206965)	10/25/2006 11:57:10 PM
From: jttmab	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

This is a fun read ... en.wikipedia.org You might make note the graph on the side: en.wikipedia.org What does that chart say to you about global peak oil? jttmab

To: mistermj who wrote (206965)	10/26/2006 11:25:58 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Respond to of 281500

Greyzone's List of Major Oil Fields Click on column heading to sort. Greyzone's original blog entry on The Oil Drum. Download CSV. Id Oil field Size in gb Country Peak year Peak production mbpd Status Decline rate Source (This is 5 6 months old. Currently, it's estimated Ghawar is depleting at an 8% rate. There is also a field in China,not on the list, among the top 4, which is also depleting. Current estimate for Cantarell is now a 40% depletion rate.) 1 Ghawar 83.0 Saudi Arabia 0 0.0 Unknown 0.0 2 Burgan 72.0 Kuwait 0 0.0 CONFIRMED DECLINE 14.0 peakoil.com 3 Cantarell 35.0 Mexico 0 0.0 CONFIRMED DECLINE 14.0 peakoil.com 4 Bolivar Coastal 32.0 Venezuela 0 0.0 Unknown 0.0 5 Safaniya-Khafji 30.0 Saudi Arabia/Neutral Zone 2004 1.5 Unknown 0.0 6 Rumaila 20.0 Iraq 0 0.0 Unknown 0.0 7 Tengiz 26.0 Kazakstan 0 0.0 Unknown 0.0 8 Ahwaz 17.0 Iran 0 0.0 CONFIRMED DECLINE 64.0 theoildrum.com 9 Kirkuk 16.0 Iraq 0 0.0 CONFIRMED DECLINE 0.0 Need Source 10 Marun 16.0 Iran 0 0.0 CONFIRMED DECLINE 0.0 allbusiness.com 11 Gachsaran 15.0 Iran 0 0.0 Unknown 0.0 12 Aghajari 14.0 Iran 0 0.0 CONFIRMED DECLINE 0.0 iran-daily.com 13 Samotlor 16.0 Russia (West Siberia) 0 0.0 CONFIRMED DECLINE 9.0 (Simmons' book IIRC) 14 Prudhoe Bay 13.0 US (Alaska) 0 0.0 CONFIRMED DECLINE 11.0 (Multiple sources) 15 Kashagan 13.0 Kazakhstan 0 0.0 Unknown 0.0 16 Abqaiq 12.0 Saudi Arabia 1973 1.095 Unknown 0.0 simmonsco-intl.com[pdf] 17 Romashkino 14.0 Russia (Volga/Ural) 1973 1.6 Unknown 0.0 simmonsco-intl.com[pdf] 18 Chicontepec 12.0 Mexico 0 0.0 Unknown 0.0 rigzone.com 19 Berri 12.0 Saudi Arabia 1977 0.787888 Unknown 0.0 simmonsco-intl.com[pdf] 20 Zakum 12.0 UAE 0 0.0 Unknown 0.0 21 Manifa 11.0 Saudi Arabia 0 0.0 Unknown 0.0 22 Faroozan-Marjan 10.0 Saudi Arabia/Iran 0 0.0 Unknown 0.0 23 Marlim Campos 14.0 Brazil 0 0.0 CONFIRMED DECLINE 8.0 econbrowser.com 24 Shaybah 15.7 Saudi Arabia 2004 0.56 Unknown 0.0 mafhoum.com[pdf] rubyesque.com

To: mistermj who wrote (206965)	10/26/2006 12:32:23 PM
From: geode00	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Did you even read your own list? That's just a list of activities some of which are gas and some of which are dry and at least one of which was plugging a dry hole. Peak oil is about how much oil is in the earth and how we can (or can't) get at it. Since we know how oil is produced and how long it takes to produce, we know that it is a finite resource. T. Boone Pickens has bet 3/4's of a billion dollars on oil sands which depend on high oil prices to justify the cost. If there were lots of easy reserves available, do you think he would have done that? ======== There's also a great deal of lying going on since at least one OPEC country has been pumping steadily for decades and still claims the same level of oil reserves. --------http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P87339.asp?GT1=4244 Is Saudi Arabia running out of oil? advertisement The Saudis claim to have plenty of reserves, but a top energy expert disputes that. Without any independent data, the world is dangerously in the dark, he says. By Jon D. Markman When oil prices have doubled to $80 and a second great depression threatens global political stability, the president of the United States will impanel a Sept. 11-style commission to explain the intelligence and policy failures that led to the crisis. The verdict will be familiar: The stunning blow to the world economy brought about by the sudden, unexpected depletion of fossil fuel should've been anticipated and prevented. When that day comes -- in five years or perhaps 20, who knows -- many of the key exhibits will have been penned by Matthew Simmons, a Houston energy analyst and banker at Simmons & Co. International. Simmons is now shouting from the rooftops -- writing think-tank white papers, giving speeches and finishing a book set for publication next year -- that the world is fast running out of affordable oil and gas, and that no amount of Middle Eastern pumping can bail us out. While much of the so-called ?peak oil? story is well known, what's news is Simmons? startling claim, based on personal analysis, that Saudi Arabia?s pumping capacity is in decline. Aramco, the company in charge of Saudi oil operations, disputes Simmons? assertion and has debated him in public policy forums. But Simmons isn't easily dismissed, as he's no anti-establishment crank. In addition to his role as chief executive of a major energy-focused investment bank, which counts Halliburton (HAL, news, msgs) and the World Bank among its clients, he?s a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and was an advisor to President Bush?s election campaign and Vice President Dick Cheney?s infamous energy task force. A pervasive, regressive tax Simmons? point of view is especially relevant today because the price of oil appears persistently stuck at $35-plus despite Saudi officials? vows to help push it down by increasing supply. Higher energy prices act like a pervasive, regressive tax, robbing consumers of money that would otherwise go to buy discretionary goods such as cars, clothes and computers. The role of higher energy prices so far seems lost as a culprit in the failure of the stock market to advance this year, and yet it could be considered a root cause. In a nutshell, peak-oil advocates note that U.S. oil production -- once the highest in the world -- topped out in 1970, while natural gas production topped in 1973. Both are now in decline. With world consumption of oil at about 1 billion barrels every 12 days, oil companies have pressed hard to find oil and gas in other parts of the globe. Indonesia?s fields are old and declining, as are Russia?s and Canada?s. Simmons and others say that most of the world?s easily obtained large oil reserves have already been located in remote areas such as Arctic Alaska, the deep-water Gulf of Mexico, deep-water West Africa and the North Sea, and that new reserves being brought on line offer only marginal amounts. As an example, ExxonMobil (XOM, news, msgs), ChevronTexaco (CVX, news, msgs) and Petronas of Malaysia have teamed with the World Bank to develop the Doba oil fields in the landlocked northern African country of Chad at a cost of $1.5 billion, and to build a shipping facility on the coast of neighboring Cameroon at a cost of $2.2 billion. Yet Chad has only an estimated 900 million barrels of reserves, and the field will pump just 50,000 barrels a day, an amount that would boost the local economy tremendously but barely make a dent in world production.