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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mistermj who wrote (207009)	10/26/2006 3:55:08 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 281500

Peak People. Mqurice's Theory of Peak People holds that Peak People will happen before Peak Oil. Technologically tricky oil production abilities will continue long to improve after Peak People is in the bag. So oil production will continue to increase after Peak People is reached. China has for decades had a 2 child policy and around the world, the baby bust is already in the bag. Population implosions are on the way. Japan has reached Peak People. Italy can't be far behind. China is still rapidly developing, with increasing economic ability to buy more oil and they have lots of things to use it for. So even when their population has reached maximum, they'll be buying increasing amounts of oil. Similarly for many countries still under development [which is all of them]. Peak Oil will be reached because the human population starts dropping and the need for oil therefore reduces. There are only so many international trips one can make without getting sick of it. Only so many miles one can be bothered driving. When there are half as many people, oil demand will drop off a lot. Even as the ability to find more continues to improve, people will be wanting less of it [in total]. So, Peak Oil will be reached because Peak People is reached. Peak People might get a hurry along with humanized H5N1 or something else and not just wait around for old age. Global Peak People should be about 2030 - maybe as soon as February 2008 if a pandemic gets on the loose next northern winter [H5N1 seems to have missed the bus again this northern winter]. Peak Oil should be about 2040. C02 levels will start dropping straight away as petatons of plants gobble it flat out and rain and oceans dissolve it. By 2100, levels will have dropped enough that another glaciation takes over. People will migrate back to Africa and other warm places. Buying land in the Sahara Desert and outback Australia now is probably a good idea for family Trusts for future generations. Mqurice