"But that doesn't mean we are running out of oil anytime soon"
Running out of oil is a rather vague term, and I use it my self. Does that mean like in a car, when you drive down the road and the gauge drops to empty and the car coasts to a stop? No; we will never pump the last drop, nor probably even find every little pool of oil on the planet.
Some modify it to "run out of cheap oil". That's more or les the case now.
However, to me, running out of oil is not having enuf to meet our needs. We've been getting glimpses of that over the last year. I had about 6 or 8 posted at the Nest, which I can't find, but this gives you the flavor. The sky isn't falling, but it is showing signs of cracking....
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Below the radar of even the most attentive newspaper readers, however, the first stirrings of peak oil reality are starting to trickle in. Not surprisingly, most of these reports come from the poorer parts of the world where $60 oil is simply too much for fragile economies.
Here are a few of the items: (2005)
• Last week the BBC reported that dozens were killed in fuel riots across Yemen when the government withdrew subsidies resulting in dramatic price increases.
• All across Indonesia people were lining up at gas stations in response to developing fuel shortages. In one city, half the public transport was inoperable due to a lack of fuel.
• In Zimbabwe, the government has moved to deregulate fuel procurement in the face of severe shortages: waits of hours for buses, gas lines that are blocks long, and a bread shortage. The black market price for gasoline is now ten times the official rate.
• Nearly all the poorer countries make their electricity using diesel generators. Nicaragua, one of the poorest countries in Central America , recently started blacking out the poorer districts between 7 and 10 p.m. , the hours of peak usage.
• Tanzania, with the highest gasoline taxes in East Africa and a chaotic oil marketing system, is seeing its plans for economic growth "suffocated" by high-priced oil. Tanzania also handles fuel for the landlocked states of Malawi , Rwanda , the Eastern Congo , Burundi and Uganda .
• And closer to home, Maxjet put off plans to offer cheap flights from Baltimore to London until spring when the company hopes fuel prices will be cheaper.
peakoil.ie
news.bbc.co.uk
english.aljazeera.net
When I look at projections for 20 years down the road, I see demands of 120 MBPD Message 22087090, and I see projections we will only be able to pump 60 M.; to me, that's running out. There aren't enuf seats at the party, and somebody will be left out.
Here's the Oklahoma experience, where production has declined for about 75 straight years....
Let us not underestimate the unfolding situation. We who live in Oklahoma, more than anybody else on the planet, should understand oil depletion. We used to be Saudi Arabia. Tulsa was the Oil Capital of the World. Well, Oklahoma City argued about that, so maybe we were the Twin Cities of Planetary Oil. Oklahoma City sits on top of what was once the nation's largest oil field. Tulsa is right next door to the Glenn Pool. In 27 of the 35 years, 1900-1935, Oklahoma was Number 1 in US oil production. Phillips 66, Conoco, and Sinclair, all got their start here. If you look at a graph of Oklahoma oil production, you can clearly see Hubbert's Peak.
Sure, we still produce oil and gas. In 2004, there were 83,000 oil wells pumping oil in the state of Oklahoma. But the average production per well was only 2.1 barrels of oil per day. And we were the number 6 state in the nation for total oil production that year. So nobody here should doubt the reality - and the finality - of oil depletion. If the nation's sixth largest oil producer is averaging 2 barrels of oil per day per well, then that is a statement about the future of oil production in the United States.
This is a problem, because with 6 percent of world population, we consume 25% of world oil production, and our thirst for oil increases every year. Sooner or later, that increasing
oksustainability.org
I'd say "running out" is either when we plateau, and are unable to meet the demand (we may be there, but we won't know for a while) or when we see we are on the downslope of Hubbert's curve.
"while investment and discovery catches up", we continue to deplete faster. |
