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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: quehubo who wrote (31431)11/10/2006 8:00:05 PM
From: JohnM  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 541777
 
Ah, you've changed the topic of your post slightly. Now it's not about who gets the oil but the overall contribution of Iraqi oil to the global economy. OK. That, of course, raises the same sorts of questions. What proportion is Iraqi oil? If it's not much, then it may well be a non-event. If it's a lot, then it's worth discussing.

As for the regional implications, I completely agree. It's just not clear what's the best answer. At the moment, it's not at all clear how a regional conflict is avoided. My own thought is a "soft" federation works best. That is one, in which there are three separate governmental bodies with enough power in the center to allocate the income from the oil resources in some acceptable way.

What are your thoughts?

But, as for which party is responsible for the current mess in Iraq, that's hardly worth typing about.



To: quehubo who wrote (31431)11/10/2006 8:05:12 PM
From: neolib  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 541777
 
The important thing to note is that Iraq produces about 1.9 mbpd. This loss of oil would have dramatic consequences, but the world would survive. The point is without the revenue Iraq would not exist without impacting its neighbors.

Which is on the order of the amount of oil cutbacks that OPEC has agreed to in order to keep the price near $60/B. I'm quite certain the rest of OPEC would happily up their production 2M/day if Iraqi oil went off the market.