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Politics : Just the Facts, Ma'am: A Compendium of Liberal Fiction -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter Dierks who wrote (53694)	11/20/2006 1:34:47 PM
From: Solon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 90947

"A person who buy hundreds each week may be making a horrible investment decision, but they have an exponentially higher chance of 'winning' it than I do. Thus they can be said to make their own luck." I believe you are confusing luck with probability. And just as clarification: The person who buys hundreds of tickets per week is only slightly more likely (probable) to win a lottery than the person who buys one. If such a one is "making their own luck" then it is most undoubtedly bad luck, as such reckless behaviour will lead to financial ruin in all but the very rich. "For instance if a person moderates their lifestyle they are much more likely to be lucky enough to be enjoying life at 85" I don't know that it is meaningful for you to term it "lucky" when you explicitly point out that it is consequent to adhering to sound reasoning in lifestyle choices. Generally, when a person applies reason to pursue a probable outcome, we see it as an accomplishment rather than a lucky break. For instance, we don't consider a student who studies diligently to get an A with honors as having been "lucky". Nor do I think that someone who exercises conscientiously and follows scientific principles in eating is properly considered "lucky" because he/she lives to 85. Luck is never the cause of any event. Certainly, AFTER an event one can make personal (and irrelevant) conclusions about "good luck" or "bad luck", but all random events are ruled by inexorable percentages, and where events are not random, then factors other than luck or supernaturalness may be identified as causal. Casinos make billions and billions because otherwise sensible human beings are insensible to the difference between percentages and "luck". Again, Luck does not cause anything. It is merely a way of interpreting or calling a past event.