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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: cnyndwllr who wrote (210111)12/7/2006 2:59:49 PM
From: bentway  Respond to of 281500
 
The ISG Report is a political cover document, not any sort of a solution document. It gives all parties a menu of "solutions" to select from. Then at some future point, all can say we impelemented the ISG solutions, but it was just too late. The Baker commission split the difference between "stay the course" and "cut and run" - stay and walk. But, people who walk away from horrible mistakes often end up running from them.

One for the gipper, if you will. Doomed from the git go.

I don't really see how it saves Bush from his horrible Iraq legacy at all. But, it COULD afford some cover for congresspeople and especially Republicans who voted for the war, providing they line up with the Dems to implement these things.



To: cnyndwllr who wrote (210111)12/7/2006 4:05:32 PM
From: see clearly now  Respond to of 281500
 
"are they that Machiavellian or am I missing something.."

yes,

maybe its a fake cover to allow for a safer cut and run?

or

Maybe in case fo the US Imperial Power's great Iraq Fiasco no one knows what to do..The ELDER STATESMEN couldn't very well have produced nothing..

'Ladies and Gentlemen, today he are sorry to inform you that the Study Group have informed us that there is no solution....not even the old ' hail-mary' will work, so to save you all some reading we present you with our classic 8 minute video of the Emperor reading to a children's class who was 'not to be left behind'!

Please there will be no Questions"..Snowjob



To: cnyndwllr who wrote (210111)12/7/2006 4:57:36 PM
From: neolib  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 281500
 
You're spot on regarding embedding US troops in Iraqi units: after the first or 2'nd fratricide resulting in US troop deaths, that will be shelved. When I first read that proposal I thought it was the nuttiest idea of recent. However, it has a couple of additional showstoppers as well. Who has control? Will US troops actually be placed under the tactical control of Iraqis? If so, the first time some get killed by what gets blamed on poor Iraqi decision, the experiment will stop as well, or most remaining Republicans in Congress from red states will find themselves looking for new jobs in 2008. What happens if Iraqi units commit atrocities while embedded US troops are present? Do our troops intervene at possible danger of fratricide, do they watch and not intervene, or do they join in? Can they be tried for war crimes (as some currently are being for their own sins) if they simply watch and don't intervene.

I just don't see any way this scheme works.

BTW, I strongly agree here as well:

The deciders have almost all, belatedly, realized we're not dealing with larvae stage Americans but rather an Iraqi culture saturated with mores, ideals and policies we find incompatible with the central governance of a nation containing at least three separate religious or ethnic groups.


I've long argued that our misadventure in Iraq is akin to the UN blue helmets invading Texas to force gay rights on the Southern Baptists (or pick some similar example). Yet many on the right, and indeed the right blogsphere use to yell and scream about how demeaning such a view was of the Iraqi people, how clearly those people were just dying for the chance to prove they were the same as "all men" surely must be. Now, many of those same pundits think we should ratchet up the killing of our enemies, so we can still achieve the goals. Some people genetically cannot get it.



To: cnyndwllr who wrote (210111)12/7/2006 5:39:14 PM
From: geode00  Respond to of 281500
 
Heard there's another party trying to come together in Iraq with Allawi involved. The drumbeat appears to be that the Iraqi government isn't powerful enough which sounds like yet another call for a Saddam-like strongman to come and restore 'order' aka have one side win by decimating the other side.

It's a once in a century power grab. Is Dubya really going to side with SCIRI/Iran against the Sunnis?

What strange, strange bedfellows.

mercurynews.com
Iraqi Shiite politician calls for tougher U.S. action against Sunnis

By Hannah Allam, Jonathan S. Landay and William Douglas

McClatchy Newspapers

(MCT)

WASHINGTON - A powerful Iraqi Shiite Muslim leader on Monday urged the Bush administration to step up military attacks against Sunni insurgents and al-Qaida terrorists in his country, saying the United States' failure to take tougher action against the two groups has brought Iraq to the brink of civil war.

"The strikes they are getting from the multinational forces are not hard enough to put an end to their acts, but leave them (to) stand up again to resume their criminal acts," said Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim, the leader of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) after White House talks with President Bush. He spoke at the U.S. Institute for Peace, a U.S. government-funded foreign policy institute.

Using the terms Shiites use to describe al-Qaida and the Sunni insurgents, Hakim called for tougher U.S. military action. "Eliminating the danger of the civil war in Iraq could only be achieved through directing decisive strikes against the Taqfiri terrorists and Baathist terrorists in Iraq," he said.

Hakim's call for greater action against Sunni insurgents, which came two days before a bipartisan commission is expected to recommend that the U.S. begin reducing the number of U.S. combat troops in Iraq, underscores how at odds Iraq's Shiite leaders are with American policymakers.

For several months, U.S. officials have said that Shiite militias, not the Sunni insurgency, are the greatest threat to Iraqi security, and they've pressed Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to disarm them, something Maliki has been reluctant to do.

Hakim declined to say whether he'd pressed for more U.S. military action during his meeting with Bush. The White House also declined to detail Hakim's discussions with the president.

Hakim, whose SCIRI party's militia, the Badr Organization, has been accused of infiltrating Iraqi security forces and committing atrocities against minority Sunnis, denied that his party had any role in death squads or extra-judicial killings.

But he warned that continued attacks by Sunni insurgents against Shiites could spark even greater violence. He said that "Shiite religious authorities" have urged Shiites to refrain from all-out retaliation, but warned that those authorities "might lose their ability to calm down the reaction to the continuous (Sunni) sectarian cleansing attacks."

Hakim also said he favored revamping Iraq's central government so more power rests with regional administrations dominated by the country's religious and ethnic groups, something Bush administration officials view skeptically. He also said he opposes an international conference to help resolve Iraq's problems, a proposal that some expect the bipartisan commission to make in its report on Wednesday.

White House officials have portrayed Hakim's visit as an effort by Bush to reach out to various factions in Iraq in an effort to bolster the Maliki government and find a solution to the violence there.

Officials said the Hakim meeting also is aimed at undercutting the political influence of anti-American Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, whose supporters control the largest bloc of seats in the Iraqi parliament and whose Mahdi Army militia is blamed for most of the death squad activity in the capital.

But Hakim's support in Iraq is ebbing, and there's talk in Baghdad of a new coalition to replace Maliki that would include neither Maliki's Dawa party nor Hakim's SCIRI.

Meanwhile, Sadr's and Hakim's factions are battling for control of the Shiite holy city of Najaf and the southern Shiite heartland that borders Iran. Control of the oil-rich south is the key to Hakim's longtime dream of establishing a federalist Shiite state. Sadr's followers don't oppose federalism, but they say now isn't the time for it.

In Baghdad, Hakim's involvement in the government means that his Badr Organization militia must show the kind of restraint that isn't expected of the Mahdi Army militia of Sadr, who's shunned direct involvement with the political process even though his followers hold six Cabinet posts and 30 seats in parliament.

The Sadrist politicians have staged an open-ended walkout from their duties to protest last week's meeting in Jordan between Bush and Maliki.

How useful Hakim will be in supporting Maliki is uncertain. SCIRI and Dawa have long been at odds, and Maliki was chosen prime minister over a SCIRI candidate. But analysts and Iraqi legislators in Baghdad said that with his support eroding in favor of Sadr, Hakim probably has no interest in seeing Maliki's administration collapse because that could force new elections and further strengthen Sadr.

Instead, Hakim's representatives in the government are asking for a Cabinet reshuffle to appease critics without the risk of restarting the process from scratch.

Sheikh Jalaladin al-Sagheer, a prominent Hakim-allied cleric and a member of parliament, said he expects as many as 11 seats in Maliki's Cabinet to be reshuffled in coming weeks.

Sadiq al-Rikabi, a political adviser to Maliki, acknowledged "a weakness in the government's performance" and confirmed that unspecified Cabinet changes are afoot, but he said the prime minister's seat is safe.

Others, however, said that a collection of unlikely bedfellows, including Sadr loyalists, some Sunnis, the secular Shiite former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi and Christian groups may press to take over, pledging to hasten the departure of U.S. troops through a petition they call the National Honor Deed.

"We will present our demands, which can be summarized in two points: a timetable for the Multinational Force's withdrawal, and to have our national sovereignty," said Falah Hassan Shanshal, the spokesman of Sadr's legislative bloc and a part of the emerging political alliance. "We do not accept a government under a U.S. mandate. ... We need a real government with real sovereignty."

He added, "The American strategy has failed in both Iraq and the Middle East. They wanted to corrupt Islamic values, but they failed. They came and said they wanted to cultivate democracy, but we got nothing from their democracy but killing and bloodbaths."



To: cnyndwllr who wrote (210111)12/7/2006 5:47:04 PM
From: epicure  Respond to of 281500
 
Excellent summation. Sadly you've hit all the nails on their tiny little heads.



To: cnyndwllr who wrote (210111)12/7/2006 8:19:56 PM
From: Mary Cluney  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
So is the Iraq study group that stupid, are they that Machiavellian or am I missing something?

Ed,

You have to respect experience. Jim Baker is known as the velvet hammer for good reason. Look at his resume and look at his track record. Look at what he did in Gulf War I. He put together a real coalition. The coalition paid for the war. He flipped Syria.

He is no fool.

He is against this war. He wants us out. What do we have to lose by trying to flip Syria and Iran?

Jim Baker has this president cornered. He is going to get us out of Iraq with an outside chance of settling the Israel situation.

What do we have to lose if we just flat out leave Iraq?

If we leave, full scale civil war erupts in Iraq. Syria and Saudi Arabia would have to come to the aide of their Sunni brothers. Iran would have to enter the conflict. Turkey will inevitably be drawn in. The whole region face chaos.

Is that what Syria and Iran would like to see happen?

I don't think so. I think they may want to enter into talks with the US.

What if they don't act rationally?

What do we have to lose?

Suppose they shut down oil coming out of the ME?

We lose 25% of world oil supplies. Oil goes up to $200 a barrel.

We would have to cut back on consumption. We would have to go into conservation big time. We have to search for alternative energy sources. Solar becomes economically viable.

The ME is in chaos, but at the end of the day, we would be better off.

We have nothing to lose if we adopt the Baker/Hamilton plan.



To: cnyndwllr who wrote (210111)12/7/2006 9:38:26 PM
From: steve dietrich  Respond to of 281500
 
It's kind of ironic, in Nam the war (our involvement)escalated from the imbedded advisor role to full out intervention. In Iraq we're thinking of de-escalating to an advisor role. One common denominator between the two wars is the Iraqization, or Vietnamization of the war tactic. Iraqi civilians can't trust their uniformed police/soldiers for their own safety, but we're prepared to risk our troops to these elements? Insane.



To: cnyndwllr who wrote (210111)12/7/2006 10:50:24 PM
From: jttmab  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
The apparent answer is that it's a face-saving measure to allow us to begin drawing down our troops while pretending we "plan" to continue to support the current Iraqi government. It allows us to claim we will have left on our own terms by claiming that if only the Iraqi units hadn't "turned" on our "advisors" we'd have stayed the course.

I think it's preparing the public for "the loss". To leave it as the strategy was a failure and Iraq is lost would always beg the question of what if we did something different? So they gave us "something different", it won't work and we'll leave. Another 1,000 Americans dead, another 20,000 Iraqis dead.

jttmab



To: cnyndwllr who wrote (210111)12/9/2006 12:05:47 AM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 281500
 
We Can't Wait for 2008

antiwar.com

<<...In spite of its flaws, however, the Baker commission report is a giant leap forward in more ways than one: to begin with, it breaks the long-standing taboo against talking to the Iranians and the Syrians. Secondly, it links the question of Palestine to the broader issue of maintaining peace in the Middle East, and, not only that, it also acknowledges the centrality of the Palestinian problem. Our Israel-centric policy in the region has ruled out dealing with either of these aged sore spots: the great value of the Baker-Hamilton report is that it reasserts the necessity of pursuing American interests, as opposed to purely Israeli interests. As such, what John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt call "the Lobby" is already screaming bloody murder at this aspect of the report – and it's music to my ears.

The significance of this report goes far beyond the issue of how we get out of Iraq: Baker-Hamilton marks the beginning of resistance by some in the elite to our seriously distorted and dysfunctional foreign policy, which puts narrow ideological interests above the national interest.

A rebellion is afoot, and not just in the streets but in the corridors of power: the wise men and women of the establishment are worried that our crazed president and his neoconservative Rasputins are seriously alienating the people from their government. A theme running through the report is nervousness about the growing opposition to the war: after all, if the people start questioning the assumptions of U.S. foreign policy, then they might start wondering about a whole lot of other things closer to home. And that could get quickly out of hand…

Getting back to the immediate question of how we get out of Iraq, however, the Baker report was out of date before it was even published: the reality is that we've already been defeated, and the only remaining task before us is to devise a face-saving orderly retreat. The insurgents won by stalemating us. They knew we couldn't stay forever: victory was merely a matter of biding their time and keeping their powder dry. We took Iraq away from the Ba'athists, only to hand it to Moqtada al-Sadr.

Baker thinks – or, rather, hopes – the Iranians and the Syrians will somehow pull our chestnuts out of the fire, but they won't as long as we have 140,000 soldiers massed on their borders. They won't as long as the rhetoric of this administration sounds remarkably like that coming out of Tel Aviv.

Both countries have certainly tried to engage us diplomatically: the Iranians made an offer on their nuclear program not long ago and were apparently eager to negotiate. The U.S. disdained their approach. The Syrians, for their part, have openly proclaimed their willingness to negotiate with the Americans – although this would be a lot easier if we actually had an ambassador in Damascus. The current one was recalled when trumped-up charges against the Syrian government were made by the far-from-impartial UN investigation into the murder of Rafik Hariri. And those economic sanctions imposed on Damascus would have to be rescinded. I wouldn't hold my breath on that one, however: Congress is still, as Pat Buchanan trenchantly put it, "Israeli-occupied territory," and AIPAC – wounded as it is by the arrest of two of their top lobbyists on charges of spying for Israel – is still formidable. I expect the diplomatic element of Baker-Hamilton's proposal will be the first to be shot down.

In any event, we can't wait for 2008 to get the troops out of Iraq, for the simple reason that it's too dangerous to keep them there. The primary destabilizing factor in the region is the presence of American troops in Iraq. As long as they are there, the insurgents have a cause to rally around, as does Sadr's Mahdi Army. Every day the conflict comes closer to spilling over Iraq's porous borders, into Syria, Iran – and beyond. The longer we stay, the more chances there are of a regional conflagration breaking out.

Left to their own devices, the Iraqis will sort things out. It may not be a pretty sight: but, then again, it never was that pretty to begin with. The long, slow withdrawal of American forces from Iraq envisioned by Baker-Hamilton endangers our troops unnecessarily, and the prospect of "embedding" American soldiers in Iraqi-led units is even worse. The insurgents are already infiltrating Iraqi military and police units: "embedding" them alongside these characters is bound to prove fatal for a large number of our best soldiers. If we are going to get out, then let us get out pronto – and leave the Iraqis to determine their own future. If that future is a dark one, then the inescapable knowledge that we are largely responsible may act as a brake on our brashness and willingness to intervene elsewhere...>>