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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (219856)	12/9/2006 11:02:31 PM
From: economaniack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

I see you intend to keep digging. And now you have gained mindreading abilities. Alright, I'll continue to help. For the third time, I was not really offering any opinion except that .45 nm was years away and .65 nm was only months so their inversion was simply impossible. I did not venture an opinion about whether starting the .65nm production ramp in June was a good idea or a slip or a disaster, only that it appeared that was when it would start at the time. I presume I was responding to AMD guidance in that estimate. Since that is consistent with the December availability of parts, that expectation appears to have been realized. In fact I was preparing to move cross country in April, which I did at the end of the month, and not really paying attention to the market. As usual for me, that proved to be expensive negligence. I have had relatively little time for investments or investment boards for most of this year, which is reflected in my sporadic posting. I have therefore largely refrained from attempting any very ambitious analysis of AMD's immediate performance, for my benefit or anyone else's. You presumably know this since you picked on this little bit of nothing post to make a federal case out of. I have been prompted to post when I had a few spare moments and the discussion on this board seemed to go very far astray in ways I thought I could remedy. I believe I even made a couple timely observations about short term price movements. I do have a large position in AMD and rely on this board more than any other source to remain current. Frankly that has become something of a chore recently, and I thought perhaps I could rein in some of the more delusional flights of fancy in the one area where I possess some genuine expertise. As for my expectations, I have owned AMD (off and on) for about 10 years. In that time they have never had a ramp that was half as fast as I hoped. While I am none too bright, after a while I do begin to catch on, and so I am neither surprised nor disappointed by this one, at least since they announced that Fab 36 would come up on 90nm. I do believe that AMD has platform advantages that will play out over the next few years. I also think that notebook processors are key to their market share over the next year or so(and have written as much), and that they have a reasonably strong offering in that space so I am somewhat sanguine about their relative performance in high end desktops which seems to dominate most online discussion. Had you wanted to find evidence of my limited powers of prediction you might have stuck to the week before the ATI acquisition which I regarded as pretty farfetched speculation on the grounds that it would cause huge competitive issues for the combined company and take AMD from their hardfought relatively strong financial position and make them immediately capital constrained again. My analysis of the results of the deal was pretty good, but Hector pulled the trigger anyway. Oh well. At least I actually benefited from that buying opportunity. e

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (219856)	12/11/2006 9:24:34 AM
From: fastpathguru	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

I really don't care about the details of your 65 nm production prediction. What I did care about is the basis of your economic prediction for AMD stock price. Then why did you ask specifically about the details of his 65nm production prediction, including a quote from a post of his that made no economic prections? I understand you have been following AMD for a long time. I wonder if you have insight on what has gone wrong in AMD's 65 nm process. 7 months ago (early April) you said AMD was already making 65 nm chips, and volume would be ramping within a couple months of April. I wonder what is your interpretation of events (or lack of) since then ? IMHO, you've been pwned, bigtime, and are trying to gnaw your way out of a trap that you yourself set and then bumbled into. fpg