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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ggamer who wrote (75789)	12/15/2006 6:44:07 PM
From: George K.	Respond to of 110194

I suggest State Planning Offices as a good source for state level economic projections including real estate activity. My state's economists are right on the money, or close enough, year after year. The present mortgage related activity I see appears like interest rate related "covering" by concerned ARMs borrowers moving to fixed, rolling of HELOC type (junior mortgages) into just one primary loan, and the conversion of temporary construction loans from the building boom into permanent financing - now that the project is finished. This is not the stuff of bullishness and frenzy as far as borrowing is concerned that I saw just a few years ago. Finally, if the "worst is over" it would certainly be the shortest of the three real estate corrections I have seen. I can't see how waiting another six months or so hurts anyone thinking of buying or borrowing in this uncertainty.

To: ggamer who wrote (75789)	12/15/2006 6:55:46 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

<By doing that, I basically left about 10-15% gain on the table.> I suppose you could have said the same thing in 1929, or 1973, 1989 Japan, or 2000 during the tech bubble. < Is 2007 really the year that we are going to see the credit/housing bubbles burst? How sure is everyone on this board?> In 2000 I can recall people buying the real break on a 5-7% dip too, thinking it "was just another buying opportunity". I'm sure of only two things, they probably won't ring a bell for you that the real rout is on. The only other I know for certain, is that risk is extremely high now. But jump right in, makes no never mind to me.

To: ggamer who wrote (75789)	12/16/2006 7:44:13 AM
From: re3	Respond to of 110194

<<<At this point with Dow breaking records, I am wondering if being out of the market/housing is a good idea at this point. Is 2007 really the year that we are going to see the credit/housing bubbles burst? How sure is everyone on this board. ---- well, you could buy a few call options here and there and then you'd have some exposure but know what your losses would be limited to... also, i guess it depends on which sector in the mkt one was exposed to...when you took your $ out of the market, it it was housing stocks, it probably saved you some big coin, right?

To: ggamer who wrote (75789)	12/16/2006 7:44:23 AM
From: re3	Respond to of 110194

apologies for duplicate post

To: ggamer who wrote (75789)	12/16/2006 7:44:57 AM
From: re3	Respond to of 110194

apologies for duplicate post

To: ggamer who wrote (75789)	12/16/2006 5:46:49 PM
From: Mr.Creosote	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 110194

Nice post, well said. I too have kept most of my money in MM funds over the last couple of years and my returns have suffered as a result. However, I have managed to cushion the blow somewhat compensating for my conservatism by buying naked calls or put/call spreads in the major indicies every 3-4 months. Having said that there are three basic assumptions that I have accepted as truths for myself over the years: (1) Nobody knows what will happen in the future. Nobody! (Don't believe anyone and especially don't trust your money to anybody who tells you they know what the market will do unless they have insider information.) (2) Today's economy/markets are extremely complex and are globally interacting in ways making it impossible to decipher what's going on RIGHT NOW let alone figuring what will happen next. (3) Nobody will ring a bell at the onset of a major bear market and "valuation" is NOT a necessary and sufficient condition for one to start. The 2000-2002 bear market could have easily started in 1996, 1997 but it didn't. The point is that even when you consider today's bearish arguments made by the smart folks in this forum the market could still defy everyone and continue to go straight up for another N years without any change in the current sentiment. WE JUST DON'T KNOW. Despite all the currently reported problems such as the housing market woes, the current level of consumer debt, etc. I personnaly cannot see a change in consumer behavior and consequently market behavior as long as jobs are plentiful and people earn enough money to pay for stuff. I look around and see people employed and earning/spending plenty of money. (As an example just look at the recent demand for the non-essential Sony PS3 game for $600.) Maybe everyone lives and exists in the Matrix and only a very very small number of people were given the opportunity to receive the blue pill and see "the truth". Of course there is a "poor class" (or "Brazil Americans" if you'd like) that's suffering in deep debt and is barely able to make ends meet. But every civilization, every country, and in every chronological era there has always been a poor class. Wealth distribution takes the form of a power law and this has been proven to exist in several different countries over many years. Our country is no different and I have found that most of us try every day to do those things that moves us up the wealth distribution curve (but we often end up doing things that take us in the opposite direction). So my advice is to listen to the smart people on this board as many interesting arguments and theories are discussed here. However never act on what is being said unfiltered and never associate any of the comments with a particular outcome in the markets be it real estate, stocks, bonds, gold, etc because we just don't know what will happen. (Although it sure is fun to speculate about potential outcomes.) Happy holidays.