KyrosL, I believe it is happening already, by small steps, and detectably accelerating ... by the time the big step signs are seen by media, toooooo late, already escape velocity.
It is happening first outside of the developed market, by my read, and it has happened in both developed and less developed markets via the overseas chinese. The problem is that when we look, we have not a clue of the ownership.
For example ... I know of a "Port" brand of clothing made in China and retailed all over in China at fancy locales, now moving off shore, owned by Canadian Chinese ... excellent design and value, but, gad, I cannot find a thing about them on the web, in the news, and have no clue where they book their profit - figure British Virgin, Cayman, or Bahamas - I also figure they make stuff for others' label
In the mean time, even though China made cars are not making it to superpower supersize USA market, they are getting into the deveoping world, including a small place called Germany english.people.com.cn , so soon enough, when ready, the D Day will happen on Long Beach, ZhongHua branded brillianceauto.com cars will roll on to the docks. Germany is not a less demanding auto market than the USA, the last I heard
I think all of Dell and much of Walmart's margins are at risk at some juncture, along with the big ticket items such as trains, dams, nuke power stations, etc ... because the designand r&d will migrate to where the most action is ... it is already happening for my clients as the center of gravities for their respective industries shift. The catch phrase is a simple one, "move it ourself or have it moved for us by the competition"
so, I do not believe that only Chinese-owned companies will benefit. I believe all companies who think of china as their new base of operation will benefit, regardless of ownership.
The platform company idea is a spin by someone in HK, a cheer-leading house in my view, and I believe it is wrong. The platform company, in my view, is one of the most vulnerable, by my read.
Ebay just whistled retreat from China, took on an undesireable partner, and soon enough, will find competitition galore in home market, since on the internet there is no 'home market'
In the geewhizbang fields of biotech etc, i think the global competitors face the same issue ... it cost too much to do r&d in a lot of places, and to do clinical trials, and to do manufacturing, and ..., then there is India and China
the global equalization of cost and of per capita revenue will pick up pace, and for the nations that opt out, they will fall behind, where as for those who opt in, major social changes will accelerate pace
We in HK, at deflation central and inflation crux, I cannot think what my daughter can learn that will justify a __ fold difference in standard of living when compared with the folks in China or a _x difference when compared with the folks in N.America.
I am not merely concerned. I am terrified. So I buy gold :0) |
