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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JohnM who wrote (76503)	12/23/2006 1:59:25 PM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 110194

The article makes some good points, but leaves one huge question unasked: what happens when the Asian manufacturers and coders become serious creators of brands and other intellectual property? When will such a development happen? This will obviously upset the bullish applecart in the long term. Another phenomenon the article does not touch upon is Japan, which is the owner of lots of brands and intellectual property, outsources lots of its manufacturing, and yet manages to also accumulate huge trade surpluses and keep its consumption firmly under control. What happens if the rest of Asia evolves like Japan, as is likely, IMO? It seems to me that in that case Buffett may turn out to be right after all. And, finally, something Russ just pointed out: the bulk of US assets is increasingly concentrated in the top few percent of the population. That's the fraction that also is responsible for probably all of the savings in the US. This makes the consumption depended US economy extremely vulnerable: what happens when the debt spigot that keeps the bottom 90% consuming gets inevitably turned off?