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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (76573)	12/25/2006 11:55:16 AM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 110194

Normally, yield curve inversion + the Fed stopping hikes and preparing cuts lead to a slowdown or recession. The stock market also usually peaks some time after the last hike and before the first cut. This is what happened in the past. It could happen in January, when seasonal weakness often develops. However, these markets are pretty abnormal, and have been ignoring reality that we all know about for a very long time. I don't know if yield curve inversion is related to the coming recession, or just too much liquidity in the system, or both. The presence of excessive liquidity is sure the reason for all abnormalities that we see

To: russwinter who wrote (76573)	12/25/2006 12:26:29 PM
From: kris b	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

"Amazing, you (and the market) seem to be willing to dismiss one warning sign after another." "But the late-buying binge was not enough to meet sales goals, and retailers are now turning to post-Christmas business to make this season a merry one, according to one report from a national research company." news.yahoo.com Wasn't Friday,Saturday and Sunday shopping suppose to save the Christmas 2006? I know, I know, retailers are now turning to Christmas 2007 to save them. Another warning sign, but wishful thinking (Wall Street BS, disinformation propaganda) prevails forever. Is consumer going to get stronger going forward? Without another round of reliquification, I don't think so. Just wait for construction/real estate complex to start laying people off to match 700K in new housing starts, and 2.5 million in sales of existing houses.

To: russwinter who wrote (76573)	12/25/2006 4:26:44 PM
From: jimmg	Read Replies (7) \| Respond to of 110194

<<Amazing, you (and the market) seem to be willing to dismiss one warning sign after another. What I find amazing is the selective interpretation of all data by the bears as an ominous warning sign of impending doom. No matter how bullish the fundamental news is, the bears always want to focus on any little tidbit that fit's their thesis of a crash in the financial markets. As the stock market powers higher, the bears then resort to conspiracy theories perpetrated by the Fed, the "Pig Men", "Da Boyz", "Bullies" or whoever. Perma bears would be much better off trying to view the world through realism instead of pessimism. I think most perma bears suffer from mild to severe clinical depression. To them, everything is bad and the world just doesn't know it yet.