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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Slagle who wrote (13056)	12/30/2006 6:30:30 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 219897

Hello Slagle, Just back from Internet hell, just so worldmarket.blogspot.com I did 16% for the year, thus worldmarket.blogspot.com 2006 turned out to be an OK year for the markets: Dow + 15% S&P500 +13% Nasdaq +8% 30Year T-bill yield 4.x% Nikkei +5% (Yen did not move much against USD relative to start of year) Hang Seng Index +30% Gold +17% USA Dollar against Euro -12% (yeah, you are right, what is the point? to win 15%, lose 1,200 basis points of purchasing power, pay 200 basis points in fees, 20 basis points of carry, and get taxed on the remaining 0.naught % of gains, before accounting for inflation of 8% :0) Zimbabwe Stock Index +2600% Zimbabwe official inflation rate YoY plus exchange rate devaluation @ no need to mention. My score was higher than S&P500 but lower than Zimbabwe Stock Index, at 16+%, mainly because I sold real estate in Golden State of the Empire back in April Message 22308644 , converted worth-ever-less USD proceeds to non-USD Message 22349365 , and because I harvested real estate in Hong Kong, even though it is ranked the freest, wealthiest, most productiveand habeas corpus enabled place in the galaxy. I had also made one outrageously huge trade in a Hong Kong penny stock of a company that can be termed a ponzi schema, collecting cash, issuing good-for-2-years-use-it-or-lose-it coupons, offering to keep people beautiful. Message 22585913 Message 22599493 Message 22602913 Message 22609061 Message 22622330 One other on this thread partook good fortune with me on the HK real estate club profit taking. The trade was open to all who cared enough to ask. Following up to Message 23119486 , the gains tax reserve now distributed is equal to the the original capital contributed. So, I do not believe I missed anything, and see no reason to change cautious stance going forward, now, especially when: (i) Google = all of Thailands traded companies (ii) 375,000 GE employees generate 20 billion in profit when 200 folks hedge funds generate 1/20 the amount (iii) the leverage implicit in the system will make the inevitable accident extra bad (iv) Citadel pays 5.5 biullion of trading and financing cost on a NAV of 13 billion, and is leverage 12.5 to 1 - insane (v) American private equity funds operating in China are being outbid by USA hedge funds on deals where the gedge funds are paying a premium to IPO estimate ... because they believe in the IPO pop (vi) GE is getting outbid by hedge funds at 5:1 valuation gap The conclusion is a given, only timing is uncertain. <<Picking your spot is where the money is made>> ... I agree 100%. The fact is, the stock market has gone nowhere in 7 years, dollar went kaput by 40%, and gold doubled ... so, as far as strategic asset allocation goes, so far so good. The ingredients for an accident of once-in-several-generations have been put in place, and now we are only waiting for the flash that sends up the assets and liabilities.