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Technology Stocks : The *NEW* Frank Coluccio Technology Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rob S. who wrote (18787)	1/8/2007 9:53:44 PM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 46821

Rob, I have still to get back to you on your post of last week (Msg#18747). As a measure of preparation I performed some cursory research and downloaded a couple of white papers on adaptive antenna systems. That led to additional research, until, it seems, research became an end in itself. And I just love when that heppens, because it generally means I'm into something interesting, but, unfortunately, it wreaks havoc on my netiquette performance. I'll get back to you on both topics sometime tomorrow or Wednesday. One aspect of the escalating amount of video that is traversing the Internet today that is becoming clear is that, no single provider's application (or set of applications coming from a single provider) can make a major impact on the Internet, in a proportional sense, given the total amount of traffic that it now supports. Individual links can be affected adversely, perhaps localized access networks, too, and even some of the smaller transit and backbone routes may at times become congested. But, in the larger sense when viewing the Internet proper, backbones carry so much more bandwidth today than they did even five years ago (70% to 100% CAGR y/o/y), that applications that could have brought the 'Net down to its knees only five years ago must now simply learn to co-exist with the growing number of other, like applications vying for screen time. The singlemost plausible threat would be the failure on the parts of network operators (at all tiers) to continue allocating additional capacity based on the dictates of traffic growth. Later. FAC

To: Rob S. who wrote (18787)	1/8/2007 11:58:35 PM
From: Si_Detective	Respond to of 46821

any suggestion for the companies in area that can be benefit from it?

To: Rob S. who wrote (18787)	1/9/2007 8:04:47 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 46821

Nascent video parasites in existing network. If this service required a infrastructure to ride on, it would need to be aid for. This increment in bandwidth you mention: who'd be paying for it? Someone would need to 'own' those subscribers/users to make them pay for the services and fund the upgrades.

To: Rob S. who wrote (18787)	1/9/2007 3:18:28 PM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 46821

Rob, The message below, which was posted by William Norton earlier today to the NANOG discussion list (which I've been citing for the past several days on this board), approximates some of the same points you made yesterday concerning the growth of viral video traffic on the Internet. I took particular note of his use of the term "Flash Crowds," in characterizing the near-instantaneous effect of fast viral dynamics. [Bill Norton is the Co-Founder and Chief Technical Liaison of Equinix, which is the peering factory of choice for many ASPs and content aggregators and distributors.] merit.edu --snip Subject: Internet Video: The Next Wave of Massive Disruption to the US Peering Ecosystem (v1.2) Hi all - Over the last year or so I have been working with Internet video companies who asked essentially the same question - "What is the most effective way of distributing massive quantities of Internet (video) traffic?" This has become a significant issue NOW because a few of the largest US ISPs are turning away these n*10G Internet video transit customers ! Thanks to all of you that shared your insights, or let me walk you through what this community has found to date, and especially those of you who shared their data points and allowed me to cite you as a source. I'm at the point now where I'd like to share the current draft (v1.2) of this discussion paper with a broader audience, epsecially those who will allow me to schedule a time to talk through the draft with you. (I have found this is the most effective way to get feedback next to face-to-face walkthroughs over lunch). Here's the Abstract: Video Internet: The Next Wave of Massive Disruption to the U.S. Peering Ecosystem (v1.2) In previous research we documented three significant disruptions to the U.S. Peering Ecosystem as the Cable Companies, Large Scale Network Savvy Content Companies, and Tier 2 ISPs started peering openly. By peering with directly each other they effectively bypassed the Tier 1 ISPs resulting in improved performance, greater control over the end-user experience, and overall lower operating costs. This paper predicts a new wave of disruption that potentially dwarfs currently peered Internet traffic. Some of this emerging wave of Video Traffic is demonstrating viral properties, so the more popular videos are generating massive "Flash Crowd" effects. Viral Amplifiers (sites that do not host but rather highlight the most popular videos) amplify any viral properties a video may have. If we combine this flash crowd effect and the increased size of the video files downloaded, we see the crest of the first wave of significant incremental load on the Internet. The majority of this paper details four models for Internet Video Distribution (Transit, Content Delivery Networks, Transit/Peering/DIY CDN, Peer2Peer) across three load models. The cost models include network and server equipment along with pricing models for various distribution methods. Dozens of walkthroughs of this paper have led to stepwise refinement of the models and insights into why one would prefer or not prefer one model over the other. The summary is a comparison in cost-per-video across small, medium, and large distributions. The models (spreadsheets) can be made available to those interested. -Bill --end snip FAC