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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (33871)	1/19/2007 8:56:13 AM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 96109

Hi G, Let's hope that reversal has some legs !!! Go blue line. Bob

To: Gottfried who wrote (33871)	1/19/2007 12:40:22 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 96109

Nice looking chart. BtB is up over 1, and orders for Dec are up about 100M compared to November. The following is an excerpt(s) from a Credit Suisse report released today on the SCE area. <<1Q outlook. AMAT will only report next month, LRCX won't guide bookings, and KLAC’s order guidance is too wide – implying bookings expectations are getting harder to judge. We think generally 1Q bookings will end up down ~5% q/q, a tad lower than consensus which we think is flat to down 5%. However, we see slight upside to consensus revenues – we are modeling revs $4.97bb (up 2.5% q/q) vs cons at $4.87bb; we are also above consensus for CY07 (up 6.6% y/y vs 3.8% for street). Valuation. SCE companies are relatively cheap, trading at ~16.9x our CY07 EPS ests, a 16% discount to semis at ~20.3x. We think SCE stocks will work if estimates hold up in CY07, we think both capex expectations and consensus estimates appear reasonable. We think Sep’06 marked a peak in orders for the group, and we expect an order trough in June’07; SCE stocks have generally worked the last six months of an order correction and the six months following the trough, implying there is still more legs left to the rally. Trade ideas into earnings. We like KLAC (filings imminent, upside to margins and consensus), LRCX (upside to consensus, cheap, new business traction), WFR (pricing still going up, upside to consensus) into earnings. We would take profits on CYMI (tactically wait post ASML report, no numbers/margin risk near term but market share risk increasing, Samsung using more Gigaphoton), VSEA (market share gains priced in, margin/competitive risks remain), NVLS (sub-par growth, peaking margins, AMAT/LRCX offer better 12-month alpha).>>