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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: skinowski who wrote (140666)	1/26/2007 1:46:54 PM
From: Patrick Slevin	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

No question. Still hindsight counts for a lot. When did this SPX bull cycle start, around 2002? In September of 2002 VIX was perhaps 44. It's been trending lower ever since. The Low of the SPX before this run was the following October. Perhaps two years ago someone was thinking that a drop below 20 would send the market into correction. And perhaps it did. Yet the VIX just keeps showing lower and lower Lows. However no correction has been significant, no 8 or 10 percenters. I've read that this market is the longest ever (going into the 19th Century) without a ten percent correction (DJIA included). Sooner or later the bugger has got to really work, give us a 10% correction, and return VIX to more "normal" levels even after the market recovers. But what I'm saying is the Fear Gauge isn't doing it's job; everytime it gets low there is a minor correction. The 200 day MA hasn't been touched since August. That might be a record in itself. ---------- Here is another indicator, going back historically much further than VIX. Just read it a day or two ago. From James Flanagan, a writer for a Gann service. He shows that although the DJIA has been making (fractional) new Highs the SPX is 7% lower than it's all time High. Nasdaq 62% under the all time High. He states, "Sizable divergences between the Dow and S&P characterized major tops in 1956, 1959-60, 1968, 1980-81 and 2000." -------------- February is the second worst month of the year (on average) for the stock market. So perhaps we have a week.....