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Gold/Mining/Energy : Oil Sands and Related Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bread Upon The Water who wrote (14865)	1/31/2007 7:07:08 PM
From: David Culver	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25575

Seems like a fair question what sort of compensation he gets from cll. I have owned this for some time but would not put all my eggs in this basket

To: Bread Upon The Water who wrote (14865)	1/31/2007 9:23:09 PM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25575

Bill , Is it typical that any of these little analysts have a guy on if they want to slam his stock... We have Springer and such for that type of entertainment :o) Actually I wonder how he would stand up under Colbert Report pressure LOL..

To: Bread Upon The Water who wrote (14865)	2/1/2007 12:38:33 AM
From: Sailing2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25575

Yeah, Bill, in case you haven't noticed ALL of P's interviews to ALL CEO's and analysts involve ONLY softball questions. So his interview with Gusella was typical, not anything unusual. What I don't understand is why you would not buy CLL any of the three times it successfully tested the gap at $3.07, obvious TA set-ups and all of which would have been profitable short-term trades, even if you can't bring yourself to believe in the fundamentals of the stock. Oilgeezer

To: Bread Upon The Water who wrote (14865)	2/1/2007 1:36:10 PM
From: Metacomet	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25575

By way of response, I'll quote a recent post from SH. Maybe the Pescod folks can't find any fault with this guys estimate of $100/share in 10 years.... "End of 2007: 6000 b/d for Great Divide and 3000 b/d conventional Cost/barrel at Great Divide = 30$ (suppose cost for conventional is the same) Production day: 9000 b/d Production yearly: 3.285.000 (9000 * 365) Suppose profit/earnings ratio (very conservative): 12 Oil At 50$, so 20$ profits 65.700.000 in total, gives 0,31 p/share ==> Share price: 3,72 Oil at 60$, so 30$ profits 98.550.000 in total, gives 0,46 p/share ==> 5,52 Oil at 70$, so 40$ profits 131.400.000 in total, gives 0,62 p/share ==> 7,44 Remarks: - Costs are 30$ (based on the market price of natural gas). So, if they use their own gas, costs will be lower. If they buy gas, they can sell their own gas. These revenues need to be included. - Petrolifera could be producing 20.000 b/d by the end of this year. So, 5000 (or 1$ share price) could be attributed to Connacher (but costs for conventional oil are lower so it's more than 1$) - By the end of 2008 Connacher will be producing 12000-13000 b/d) - if you use another profit/share ratio (say 15 or even 20 like some other oilsands), well you see what's possible - you need to include earnings of Montana Refinery - You need to include the reserves of Great Divide - And maybe you can include the conventional oil reserves and gas reserves (based on the drilling they will be doing this and the coming years) Well, if you ask me: share price should be at least 10$-12$ (by the end of this year). If that will happen, I don't know. Concerning the long term future: - 6 PODS identified, Gusella says he think there are more. So suppose 8 PODS - POD 2 is bigger and reserves of POD 1 wil increase. Suppose they will increase each POD with 2000 (so 12.000 instead of 10.000) - CLL recently bought new land: suppose 1 POD - Petrolifera could be producing at least 40.000 (very conservative) within 10 years (so, 10.000 barrels for Connacher) - Connacher will drill for conventional oil and gas: suppose they produce 10.000 b/d within 10 years ==> Within 10 years Connacher could be worth about 130.000 b/d!!! If they could use their own bitumen instead of gas: then they could possibly sell 120.000 b/d I also think that cost are lower. Not 30$ but maybe about 25$. I'm not an expert but I know that Gusella is always careful about numbers. So I think numbers in the end will be much better. But heck, say 30! With oil at 60$ (and 30$ profits) and an profit/earnings ratio of 12 ==> Share price in 10 years: 66,24$ (very conservative if you ask me). If oil could be at 80$ and a profit/earnings of 12 ==> Share price in 10 years: 111$ And now a number to dream of: Oil at 100$ and profit/earnings ratio of 14 ==> Share price in 10 years: 181$ Well, I don't know for sure what the future will bring. But I'm confident share price will be around 100$ in 10 years (maybe 80$ or maybe 120$). But I'm staying long!!!" stockhouse.ca;