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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ilaine who wrote (217468)	2/10/2007 9:58:54 AM
From: kumar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Is Pakistan armed with nukes a big deal ? considering the historical info available on proliferation ? Is Israel having nukes a big deal ?

To: Ilaine who wrote (217468)	2/10/2007 6:14:05 PM
From: Dayuhan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

The question is, in an imperfect world, is it better to use military force to keep Iran from building nuclear weapons, or not? The other question is whether force can effectively be used to keep Iran from building nuclear weapons. We both know that the US doesn't have the available force or the political will to sustain ground operations in Iran. I have no doubt at all that the US can bomb any place in Iran that it chooses to bomb, but that assumes reliable targeting intel and a degree of stupidity on the part of the Iranians that it might not be wise to count on: how do we know that they have not established redundant facilities in places we don't want to bomb: urban areas, for example? They have known our options for many, many years. If all you do is set the program back a year or two, and in the process you rally Iranian support behind a Government that is rapidly losing it, both from its people and its elites, it might not be a very good bargain. Throw in the impact in Iraq and elsewhere, you muddy the equation a little bit. I assume that you saw this item... tinyurl.com and this one: tinyurl.com I would say that Iran's leadership is not nearly as monolithic as some imagine, and the importance of Iran's rapidly deteriorating economy cannot be overestimated. It would seem to me that a coherent effort to exploit these factors would be more practical and likely more effective than a reflexive resort to bombs.