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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (224086)	3/14/2007 7:11:35 AM
From: Noel de Leon	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 281500

"Let me explain it another way that perhaps you can understand. Suppose your car has bad shocks. When you hit a bump in the road, the wheels shake violently afterwards. Now the best way to test for this is to stop the car, make sure it is at rest (equilibrium) then give it a sharp vertical push over a fender. If the shock is bad, the car will bounce several times with decaying amplitude. But it is still possible to deduce this while driving, even though the constant road adds additional motion factors which you must filter out. Actually, it's not possible to deduce this unless I know from other sources of information whether the road I am on is smooth or full of potholes. Since normally I do know this, I can easily deduce that the shocks must be bad. But if I were suddenly forced to drive over an unknown back road in the dark in a strange car, it would be very hard to tell the difference between a very bad road and very bad shocks." Actually any experienced driver can tell when shock absorbers are defective once the changes in the car's handling characteristics are pointed out. Find yourself a test driver and ask him/her. It was pointed out to me by one of the test drivers at the brake lining factory where I developed liners. "The question is 1) will CO2 levels keep rising and 2) will this cause temps to rise For that you need an established mechanism for turning 1) into 2). The hypothesis of greenhouse gas has some problems to overcome since during the first 30 post WWII years, when manmade C02 emissions were really climbing fast, global temperatures fell. They were talking about another Ice Age in the 1970s." 1) The rate of change for CO2 in the atmosphere is the highest in 400,000 years. 2) There is no question among climatologists that increased CO2 causes temperature rises. 3) CO2 levels will probably continue to rise over the next century if nothing is done(also if something is done, but, hopefully, at a reduced rate). 4) Geode posted an article that shows a graph of the situation over the past 1200 years. 5) The discussion about another Ice Age is still relevant since a further slowing or stop of the Gulf Stream can trigger such an event and a slowing of the Gulf Stream has been observed. This slowing can be connected to global warming.

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (224086)	3/14/2007 10:55:48 AM
From: neolib	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Actually, it's not possible to deduce this unless I know from other sources of information whether the road I am on is smooth or full of potholes. Since normally I do know this, I can easily deduce that the shocks must be bad. But if I were suddenly forced to drive over an unknown back road in the dark in a strange car, it would be very hard to tell the difference between a very bad road and very bad shocks. Absolutely untrue. Signal processing is very amazing. One is looking for characteristic responses. Part of your statement above has merit, where you try to obscure all inputs. You are getting part of it now. As long as we can observe the outputs (no problem with weather) and most of the inputs (again, not a problem with weather) we can with enough time of observation, build a very good model. The arguing on climate modeling centers to a large degree on trying to extend our time of observation by using historical data. Otherwise, the only way to build up time is to sit and wait. For that you need an established mechanism for turning 1) into 2). The hypothesis of greenhouse gas has some problems to overcome since during the first 30 post WWII years, when manmade C02 emissions were really climbing fast, global temperatures fell. They were talking about another Ice Age in the 1970s. All very well known and understood. Read up on it.