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To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (586)	3/20/2007 1:35:17 PM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 1718

'All in all this is a walk in the park compared to what this economy has seen in recent decades. It'll take much higher rates to see who's swimming naked.' Well if you look at what has been fueling the global boom it has been very low long term rates, excess credit creation, housing boom, Chindia and the war effort.. We need something new as all of these factors except Chindia have been played out.. Housing will be a drain for years but perhaps it helps do the work for the fed and allow them to protect the dollar? I'm shocked at the weakness in the likes of Motorola and Intel with this record run in the market. Certainly the stimulus isn't coming from tech in the next year.. Then I see new foreclosure filings in many bubble markets triple from last year even with the economy and interest rates still as incredible stimulants and it just makes me wonder..

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (586)	3/20/2007 2:04:19 PM
From: Bid Buster	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1718

I think you may be underestimating the imploding housing bubble impact on the consumer and the service sector. I doubt the top 10% will float the lower 90% in the food chain.

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (586)	3/20/2007 2:36:33 PM
From: $Mogul	Respond to of 1718

We will definitly see at least one quarter of negative GDP growth (if we are not in one now), the timing is really unknown, but it is closer then it has been in some time. This is just the very beginning of the rate squeeze maybe inning 2,3 out of 9 if history is any guide. There are more rate resets in late 2007 & 2008 in history with interest rates still at 30 yr. lows and the avg. American soon to be trapped in a arm they wil not be able to refinance due to many factors. It does not matter what the Fed does with short term rates. Long term rates are controlled by the bond market (dwarfing the equity market by 3-4x's. If the Fed does change their s-t rate bias tomorrow this would really signal things are worse then the media and masses think. I find it hard to beleive they would change this bias now. They are always a lagging indicator and since nothing has even happend yet, Big Ben & Co. will just eat their rice cereal and sit by and watch. Bigger question is what the printing presses are doing. I beleive that the printing is finally slowing this is the concern to watch.