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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Real Man who wrote (75202)4/10/2007 9:58:28 PM
From: orkrious  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 94695
 
Once the confidence in the dollar as a reserve currency
is lost, lots of dollars will come back from abroad, causing
more of a decline.


Would you please explain the above.

People don't want dollars, so they raise the price of their products when priced in dollars.

Foreigners will sell their US bonds, and they will get fewer dollars for them, or people will require higher rates before they will think about buying them.

I'm sure it's a simple thing I don't see, but why does a declining dollar mean lots of dollars will come back from abroad?

tia



To: Real Man who wrote (75202)4/10/2007 11:21:57 PM
From: $Mogul  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 94695
 
How can we repay the debt to other countries if
we have 10% of manufacturing? What will we eat and consume if
we are dependent on constant imports?

When the Dems get back in power you will see lots of tarrifs on Chinese imports, so much that it will discourage American business to manufacture there from a tax point of view., The US will try to regain some manufacturing power that will hopefully stimualte the economy for the next generation.

conclusion: the dollar crisis will have very severe
consequences for the economy, and it will take a very
long time ~ 10-20 years to come out of it! Housing will
collapse. The debt will have to be forgiven, or eaten away
by hyperinflation, since the Fed most likely will resort
to printing more dollars. Printing dollars is all they really
can do. They don't have magic powers. It's a central bank

Housing mkt. will suffer for about five years. Stock mkt. will reflate benefiting the "minority" savors. The US debt will be relate to the new found asset worth in dollars.



To: Real Man who wrote (75202)4/12/2007 4:54:43 PM
From: William H Huebl  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 94695
 
Thanks for that review... and I can see why the dollar has the chart "pattern" it has - a lot of people see what you see. And it will all unwind when the dollar breaks 80.

And from the looks of things, that could happen at any time now. But it would make more sense if 80 became strong resistance to work out some things there first, IMHO.