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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (226777)	4/11/2007 9:29:01 PM
From: neolib	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Each time pointing out that the XYZ scenario isn't real, but Peak Oil is.. What I've never understood about Peak oil is how a dogmatic stand can be taken against an unknown. There are two significant ones that peak oil must contend with 1) technology improving recover of existing reserves, and 2) undiscovered reserves. Pointing to past data does not help, since you cannot preclude largescale changes in either one. For an example that would really blow things out, imagen 20 years from now a bioengineered bacteria that can leach oil out of shale deposits. This would drastically increase useable reserves that currently are not very energy efficient to exploit. I don't see anyway in principle that you can exclude such a future. Somewhat reminds me of the ever receding (but we know someday ending) lithography limits in IC production. When I was in grad school the industry was just hitting the 1um node, and I can't remember how many thesis lectures I sat through with hand wringing about the impending doom. Here we are at 65nm and it still looks OK through 45 & 32, but the same hand wringing goes on.