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Gold/Mining/Energy : Copper - analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LoneClone who wrote (1724)	4/12/2007 9:36:47 AM
From: LoneClone	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 2131

Chinese metal demand great news for Teck: analyst communities.canada.com Copper and zinc imports to China look as if they hit unprecedented levels in March. In a research note to clients, Desjardins Securities analyst John Hughes said net refined copper imports into China last month are forecast at 165,000 tonnes. That's more than double the 82,000 tonnes during March 2006. He calls that level "materially above general market expectations." It's just what you want to hear if you happen to be a Teck Cominco Ltd. (TCK.B/TSX) shareholder. Teck reports its first quarter results on April 23rd. Mr. Hughes expects it to be the earnings low point of the year, as the company faced lower copper and zinc prices than it experienced in the fourth quarter of 2006. But if the recent jump in prices for both commodities hold, that's "great news" for Teck going forward, he wrote. He rates Teck a "buy" with a target price of $98.85 a share. Copper accounted for 45% of Teck's earnings before tax in 2006, while zinc accounted for 41%.

To: LoneClone who wrote (1724)	4/12/2007 12:54:30 PM
From: The Vet	Respond to of 2131

With all of these wildly varying outlooks on copper prices I keep getting the feeling that there are some desperate traders with deep underwater positions, talking their book and hoping for miracles! One is quoting "Huge demand from China" while the next guy quotes "Demand is falling of a cliff due to substitution".. And the price just marches higher, despite the odd raid by the shorts which the longs simply turn into a buying opportunity! My guess is there are quite a few paper traders who find that it's getting harder to substitute paper for metal...