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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: epicure who wrote (36198)4/14/2007 3:19:14 PM
From: JohnM  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 541959
 
I continue to think stagflation is the greatest risk in the US . . . . .

I've been watching the valuations on inflation linked bonds (TIAA-CREF has an account which we can move some of my wife's 403(b) money into) for some time. They certainly don't show any anticipation of inflation issues. I looked seriously at moving some money into them, oh, two or three years ago, but backed off. And nothing in their price movements since suggests their valuations are headed up.

I gather the fixed income investment recommendations remain to put it in money markets or short to very intermediate term bond funds.

Any thoughts? Anyone?



To: epicure who wrote (36198)4/14/2007 3:59:34 PM
From: Dale Baker  Respond to of 541959
 
Unless we get enough asset deflation to cut credit demand and spending, a stagflation outcome looks very likely. If we could sustain 2-3% growth with mild inflation and the Fed holding rates steady, the markets could muddle along OK.

The average middle class guy living paycheck to paycheck won't gain any ground but he should also muddle through.

I would be happy to see the dollar weaken another 5-10% since I am more than 80% in foreign stocks now.


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