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Strategies & Market Trends : Calls and Puts for Income -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robohogs who wrote (270)	4/22/2007 1:36:45 AM
From: Carl Worth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5891

DNDN is pure speculation at this point, and so is assigning probabilities to potential outcomes, but giving a 2/3 probability to something better than an approvable letter seems awfully generous the drug didn't even meet its endpoints, and patients on the drug lived an average of four extra months, if that data is even accurate, considering all the massaging that was done to the study data there's no doubt that four months is an eternity to someone who is dying, and it's possible that the FDA will approve the drug simply on the hope that it will benefit some patients, but it seems just as likely that they will issue an approvable letter, and let DNDN continue its study that runs until 2010 as noted previously, anyone buying this stock (or writing puts, etc) with the idea that DNDN is any more likely to be 20 than 4 in a month, is speculating with blinders on JMHO of course, but i note that forbes has similar thoughts on the possible outcomes, and also on the potential upside vs downside forbes.com