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Politics : New FADG. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: one_less who wrote (1001)	5/25/2007 8:52:38 PM
From: TimF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4152

Neither Israel nor Al Qaeda is a superpower. (Israel is a regional power, as is Iran, Pakistan may be as well, and would be if India didn't exist, but Pakistan's military didn't shrink. India and China are major regional powers and potential superpower candidates, but not in 10 years, maybe in several decades) Technological development: If you are stuck with old equipment you are stuck with removing the old before you can install the new. So maybe Niger, Somalia, or Afghanistan is going to be the next superpower? OK they are all smaller then Pakistan (even combined), but lack of development is not a sign of an impending rise to super power status. Location: Take a look. Being landlocked once a hindrance now affords some protection from climatic change and approaches by enemies. Location doesn't matter as much as other factors, but to the extent it does matter - To be a superpower, means you can have a military effect across the world. Typically you would have either a coastline and a good size navy, or vast territories (like the old USSR, which could deploy forces to a good chunk of the world without having to go all that far from its borders). And Pakistan borders a potential enemy India, that's bigger than it, so that aspect of its location doesn't help it. Social development: The proper government of Pakistan has never had control of the frontier regions. The military wont even go there. The fundamentalists in the frontier could organize a coup on Musharafs govt any time they want. They haven't for good reason. The time isn't right yet. Where would you look right now for powerful Al-Quaeda leaders? It's no secret where they are hiding. That's a good argument for Pakistan being a source of, and/or scene of, trouble, but its also a good argument for Pakistan not being a superpower. If the US couldn't even deploy its military in to Arizona, it would be hard to take it seriously as a superpower. Who else could be an Islamic country super power? No one. But who says any Islamic country will be a superpower any time soon. There is no law that says any Islamic country has to be a superpower.

To: one_less who wrote (1001)	5/25/2007 9:38:05 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4152

One thing that we might find ironic in coming years would be the US coming to the defense of Iran. Iran obviously has been playing "both sides" in an attempt to maintain influence with both the Mahdists (Shi'a) and Al Qai'da. They have provided sanctuary to Al Qai'da leaders, including Bin Ladin's son (supposedly they were "interned"), and I saw indications that they were providing money and aid to certain groups via Syria. It might sound strange that they would support Sunni Jihadist forces in Iraq, but from the perspective of humiliating the US, and keep the Iraqi Shi'a dependent upon them for support, it makes sense. But the Iranians and the Taliban did not get along, during their reign in Afghanistan. And if the Taliban, or some of their fellow deobandists, succeed in gaining control over Pakistan, we really might see Iran's hardliners take a hard look at their relationship with the United States. Iran and Pakistan share a very considerable border and Pakistan is a nuclear power. It could drastically alter the regional balance of power and political alignments. Hawk