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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (7956)	6/16/2007 12:49:01 PM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Hawk, the fundamentals are certainly hard to understand. I certainly don't disagree with any of your points. The demographic issue you have brought up more than once, may be a key element. Don't know the statistics but I would not think older folk are big consumers. That may be why it is so difficult for Japan to light a fire under consumer consumption. The BOJ is no doubt accutely aware of the market pain they went through in the 90's. They probably do not want to slip back into that scenario, so they are keeping the spigots open. A real key to Japan's problems may be Japan itself. Racism is probably a bit strong, but the government seems to promote policies consistent to those of a closed country. I used to read Fallow's. Have not for some time, but I doubt much has changed. theatlantic.com

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (7956)	6/16/2007 10:16:33 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

$/JPY ripped right through resistance at 122.00 on Friday, and the EUR and GBP etc had big up moves on the JPY cross. The Yen could go to 130 from here or even 136.50 on a technical break out basis. I'm not sure how you reconcil the need for a stronger RNB - Yuan with the Yen weakening and making itself vulnerable to further weakening. I would say that it's going to be a turbulent summer in the currency markets and that should extrapolate to volatility and some unpredictability in the other asset markets as well. I don't see the Yen stabilizing now that it has broken down the USD. I'm franking very curious about exactly what is going to happen over the next 3-4 months. I saw a really excellent article in a New Zealand paper regarding the New Zealand central bank intervention in the NZD this past week, it made a most excellent point that the central bank is trying to achieve diametrically opposed policy objectives at the same time recently, by raising rates to combat inflation and then pushing the currency down which of course makes imports more expensive and exacerbates inflationary pressures. I'll see if I can find that article. I also saw an argument that the New Zealand Central Bank action was resulting from Global liquidity issues, but I don't know if I subscribe to that theory. John