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To: Sam Citron who wrote (794)6/19/2007 4:21:00 PM
From: Jerome  Respond to of 5891
 
Concerning AHM current price is 22.31 +.32.......

The dividend was cut 38% to .70 a share...still a very healthy dividend.

Earnings fell to $.54 a share...still healthy earnings for $23 stock.

2007 earnings forecast cut to $3.25 from $3.75...still very decent earnings, that I can live with.

I think this stock got trashed excessively as indicated by the following chart.

finance.yahoo.com

But here opinions vary, and I'll take this very profitable financial company "as is".



To: Sam Citron who wrote (794)6/19/2007 4:40:36 PM
From: Bridge Player  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 5891
 
I believe that AHM has recently reached technical support at 20-21 going back to a spike high 4 years ago, June 2003. It is down from 40 a couple of years ago, and since the beginning of 2007 has of course been creamed by the lousy housing market.

It sells for right around book value and at about 1.3 times projected 2007 sales. IMO the company is well managed and has been forthright about their outlook and the earnings picture. Without doing a whole lot of due diligence, it is my understanding that they are not nearly as exposed to the sub-prime market as many of their competitors, some of whom are in rather serious trouble.

At a PE of about 8 times lowered 2007 earnings forecast, and with a huge dividend (the .70 was projected by the company some time ago, so the reduction came as no surprise to anybody), and recently at half it's high, it is my kind of stock. I'm prepared to hold through another dividend cut to .50/quarter, at which time the yield would be around 8.5%. All JMO.

Disclosure: long the stock and short July 20 puts, both from several weeks ago.



To: Sam Citron who wrote (794)6/29/2007 9:00:29 AM
From: Bridge Player  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 5891
 
AHM withdraws guidance for 2007 earnings, in expectation of substantial loss for 2nd quarter ended today.

However, reaffirms .70 quarterly dividend policy, and states that stockholder book value will be higher at end of 2nd quarter than at end of 1st quarter ended March 2007.

Stock is sharply lower in pre-market this morning.

Not too sure what to make of all this. No doubt more dust to settle and it will all be eventually clarified.

My guess is that future dividends much more in doubt now.

Details here:

biz.yahoo.com