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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Johnston who wrote (80081)	6/25/2007 1:08:10 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Respond to of 306849

OT: Remember when Bush Sr. talked of wanting to create a "new world order" many years ago? This is it happening. Make all the peoples of the world roughly equal. China comes up a bit, the US comes down a lot. To do it the little shrub spent all the surplus, put the country heavily into debt, got us mired in an unwinnable war, and stripped many civil liberties. This country might never be able to undo all the damage. I had forgotten about the new world order until someone reminded me this weekend.

To: Mike Johnston who wrote (80081)	6/25/2007 4:57:48 PM
From: Tradelite	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

<<Back in 2001/2002, when real estate bubble was gathering steam, inflation was not yet that much visible in retail prices ( in January 2002 oil was $20, gasoline was a buck, gold was $280, it seems like ages ago, but it was only 5 years ago !!!) Only those watching money supply figures were alerted to what is happening. I think house price increases were a combination of inflation and a bubble. I don't think people were trying to escape "inflation" per se. At this point, bubble is deflating, while high inflation will limit potential nominal declines.>> ___ Don't really like getting into these discussions about the why/what/wherefore of housing, but can't resist pointing out for the sake of education that the "real estate bubble" did NOT start gathering steam in 2001/2002. It was already in full-steam-ahead mode by that time. Where I live, it actually started about five or six years before that (when I started getting more than five offers on one house within about two weeks, when another Realtor got 14 offers on a house in my own neighborhood within one week, when one of my buyers wound up hiring a lawyer to defend his purchase contract because the seller had another offer he liked better and tried to sabotage my buyer, etc.) Those situations were definite markers for change in the real estate situation. (You might take note that this entire thread was created when someone or some people thought the good real estate market must surely be coming to an end; how wrong that was. It certainly had been going on long enough to perhaps assume this, but the rest is history.) The signs were evident in about 1995-96 that a huge crop of buyers was showing up on the scene, yet builders still burned from the last downturn had not been creating enough supply in the pipeline. There were literally no houses to sell for quite a while, so if one did come on the market, it was swamped with buyer offers, right up thru about 2005 in my part of the country. I agree the parade escalated to an extreme in the past several years, but that was because the builders were finally catching up with demand and a bunch of other factors (including extremely low interest rates and crazy lending standards which created and enabled a bunch of insane, inexperienced people whom we now call "speculators"). Builders might never be able to create an "ideal" supply of new inventory to meet each locality's needs at any given time, because they can't react that fast to changing trends. A similar boom in the 1960s created an awful lot of new housing development in response to a shortage, followed from time to time by other types of market ups and downs. We ought to get used to this stuff instead of making such a big deal out of it, maybe? I dunno.......just an observation.