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To: John Vosilla who wrote (965)7/10/2007 1:36:09 PM
From: $MogulRespond to of 1718
 
Yes, all very proable scenarios you have posted.

I think real estate is done for a while due to Jane & Joe having 80%+ of their assets there. They already realized a decent pre-inflation, low interest rate, liquidity driven boom and now it is time to give back some as other assets revalue themselves (ie. the ones that are used for purchasing power). When everyone is isn one asset class there is bound to be some pain.

One way to tell how expensive real estate is in "this current period" is look at the $/per sq. ft. Here is LA in good areas I am continuing to see $650-$1000/sq. ft. These excesses need to be worked off first and they will with higher rates.



To: John Vosilla who wrote (965)7/10/2007 8:17:22 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuyRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 1718
 
John, you know better than most that real-estate is local. Problems in CA and FL will stimulate undervalued real-estate in fly-over country.

The market is too sophisticated and there is too much global liquidity to throw the baby out with the bathwater.

Lending will be restricted in CA/NY/NV/FL etc. and expanded in the South.