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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Grommit who wrote (27429)7/24/2007 11:33:11 PM
From: Spekulatius  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 78628
 
regarding REIT's

Grommit this is a nice list you assembled. i have been adding recently to my REIT holdings. i have tried to work on you approach of looking at FFO/price ratio and also look at net rent / EV as a valuation metric when i compare similar REIT's. this way i can account for leverage, which makes highly leveraged REIT's appear cheaper in terms of FFO/price. At this point with interest rates rising, i prefer low leverage, which is one of the reasons I choose SNH even though is does not appear to be the cheapest in terms of FFO/price.

This also lead me to prefer CLI to BDN per the following calculation:

CLI: 41$/share x89M shares +2200M$ (net debt) -700M$ (current assets)= 4.821B$
4.821B$/140M$ rent x4 = 8.6 (EV/net rent annualized)

BDN: 27$/share x89M$ + 3500M$ -700M$ (current assets)= 5.183B$
5.183B$/138M$ x4= 9.39 (EV/net rent annualized)

For rent i took the net rent (wo pass through items) from the last quarter and multiplied it by 4 for the annualized number. So by that calculation CLI is almost 9% cheaper than BDN, although the FFO/price ratio looks about 105 lower for BDN. Also CLI appears to have the better LT track record. Anyways that calculation is just to illustrate how to look at REIT valuations in general and CLI and BDN are nice examples because their are similar in their location and size (note that the revenue numbers are almost identical). This is also what a private equity manager may look at if they are smart <g>.



To: Grommit who wrote (27429)7/27/2007 12:55:48 PM
From: Tapcon  Respond to of 78628
 
Thanks for your list of REITs, Grommit. Always interested in what you have to say.

I've been watching SNH very closely after being fortunate in selling earlier this year. As I recall, they are closely linked to FVE, one of their largest tenants.

One of the concerns in the senior housing sector comes from somebody that works in the sales office of a senior community, (the independent senior community, rather than "assisted or full-care communities). Sales during the last several months have been lagging substantially because the seniors in their target group have had difficulty selling their houses, making it less likely for them to buy into the communities. And turnover can be fairly high at all senior communities.

I've been in and out of SNH several times over the last few years, just looking for the best time to get in again. (Also still have a final third of full position in MPW)



To: Grommit who wrote (27429)8/2/2007 9:15:30 PM
From: Brumar89  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 78628
 
Good article on HRP:

A High-Dividend REIT With a Kicker
By Emil Lee August 2, 2007
5 Recommendations

With a low share price, high dividend yield, and some unseen upside from properties in paradise, HRPT Properties Trust (NYSE: HRP) seems to offer compelling opportunities for Foolish investors.

If a REIT yields more than 7%, it's usually because the company has credit exposure that makes investors nervous, such as commercial mezzanine loans and B Notes, or subprime and Alt-A residential mortgages. (We all know there's a lot to be said about credit exposure these days.)

However, HRPT's biggest tenants in 2006 were the U.S. government, GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK), and Comcast (Nasdaq: CMCSA). Despite its high-grade tenants, the REIT's shares trade at $9.80. That's a roughly 39% tumble from its high, giving the stock an 8% dividend yield. The funds from operations (FFO) yield is even higher, at 11%, meaning that the company's making more than enough to cover its dividend.
I was perplexed by HRPT's valuation, so I recently spoke with its manager of investor relations, Tim Bonang, and his analyst, Katie Johnston, to try to understand what the heck is going on. Here's the breakdown.

Company snapshot
HRPT is a REIT that owns and leases about $5.8 billion and 60 million square feet worth of office and industrial properties, with a focus on government and medical office buildings. The company's property is located in 34 states and Washington, D.C.

Comparables
Although Tim noted that HRPT operates in many different and diverse markets, so do most such companies. Rival office REITs include Brandywine (NYSE: BRT), Mack-Cali (NYSE: CLI), SL Green (NYSE: SLG), and Maguire (NYSE: MPG).
Examining the forward FFO multiples for that peer group, I find that these firms trade anywhere between eight to 16 times 2007 estimated FFO, compared to nine times trailing FFO for HRPT. The company doesn't give forward guidance, so I couldn't do an apples-to-apples comparison. But based on its low historical multiple, we can safely assume that its forward multiple will be even lower. Why is HRPT valued so cheaply, compared to its peers?

An eye toward the long term
Tim noted that HRPT doesn't buy and flip its properties, instead holding onto them to produce income. As a result, the company doesn't report a lot of gains on sale, and its long-term approach probably doesn't excite investors hoping for a quick buyout.

In addition, HRPT's properties aren't marked to market. Instead, REITs take depreciation charges against the carrying value of their properties. HRPT is currently trading at roughly book value, which includes roughly $700 million of accumulated depreciation. Over time, real estate tends to increase, not decrease, in value; in 2006, HRPT sold five buildings for 30% more than historical cost. So it's reasonable to assume that HRPT's book value could be quite understated.

Whereas the aforementioned points are generally true of most REITS, the key difference is that investors give other REITs much more credit for having intrinsic values that exceed their book values.

Company Share Price Book Value Premium/Discount
Mack-Cali 39.04 21.39 82%
SL Green 120.73 54.44 122%
Maguire 26.45 8.86 199%
HRPT 9.48 8.96 6%

Running a tight ship
HRPT actually has no employees, instead contracting out management of the REIT to Reit Management and Research (RMR). RMR also runs other REITs, including Senior Housing Properties (NYSE: SNH) and Hospitality Properties Trust (NYSE: HPT). Although some investors may fear that RMR's attention is spread too thinly, through the end of 2006, HRPT had appreciated 12.2% annually since inception on a total return basis.

The corporate structure also means that expenses can be leveraged quite nicely. HRPT's G&A expenses consume only about 4% of rental income; Tim noted that the company's peers spend 6% to 7% on average. Sarbanes-Oxley costs and other expenses, which might run $750,000 for a company, only cost REITs in general about $250,000, thanks to this ability to leverage G&A costs. Nice.

Island treasure
Lastly, HRPT has a nice catalyst buried in its balance sheet. The company owns 18 million square feet of industrial land in Oahu, Hawaii. Thanks to development and the passage of time, that land in Oahu has appreciated in value over the past couple of years, and Tim mentioned that rent renewal rates have increased between 50%-80%. Although it will take a while for leases to expire and rent increases to roll through the income statement, the Oahu property does seem like a very nice driver for future growth.

The bottom line
HRPT has a very nice collection of high-credit-quality tenants, a very efficient cost structure, at least one hidden asset, and a steady 8% dividend yield. Seems like a decent opportunity to me.

fool.com



To: Grommit who wrote (27429)8/6/2007 12:10:38 PM
From: gcrispin  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78628
 
I bought some SUI during the CC today at 26.00. The CEO had some pretty interesting comments in the Q&A. He basically laid out how the sub-prime debacle will help manufactured homes. They have a new "Signature" product that is similar to the 170,000 dollar product Centex etc. have been selling in the sub-prime market. He says that they can offer something similar without a basement or garage for 70,000 dollars. In his words, the manufactured home sector has gotten their butt kicked the last seven years because of sub-prime financing for single family homes.

I have also purchased HRP and BDN on Friday. BDN will have over fifty percent of their leases coming due in the next five years.



To: Grommit who wrote (27429)8/9/2007 4:51:05 PM
From: Paul Senior  Respond to of 78628
 
I added a bit to Canroy HTE and to reit LXP today.

finance.yahoo.com

I am hoping the good dividends can be maintained.